Ultimate Fight Night 3

[Mad Dog]

It's my own opinion for the most part. Royce has been a part timer for the better part of 5 years while Hughes has been a top level guy for awhile now. Gracie's also going to be 40 this year so he's not a young man. I know Couture's still going strong in his mid 40s but he's the exception not the rule. I agree with your 7 to 1 odds against Gracie though. I'd never say never on him. It's still a fight I'd be interested in seeing.

[Guest TheShawshankRudotion]

When I look at a fight, I look at strengths and weaknesses. People have brought up things like "Royce hasn't won a fight in years" "Royce beat a bunch of shitty fighters" "Royce hasn't been continually active in 10 years". And all of that is true, and all of that doesn't really mean much. Like I said before, people are so caught up in results that they tend to lose track of what's relevant, and that's a fighters skills. There's no explaining Dennis Hallman tapping Matt Hughes out twice based on their respective records, but he still did. I am going to cheat a lil and crosspost something I wrote at DVD.

 

I can't see Hughes KO'ing Royce or successfully GnP'ing him for a ref stoppage (especially if its BJM ref'ing, which it most likely will be). Both of their stand up is rather bad for MMA, and actually they sorta remind me of each other in the way they throw really crappy high kicks and punches. Royce hasn't been knocked out and Hughes hasn't really knocked anyone out (besides the powerbomb to Newton).

 

I don't think this fight is about submissions or ko's, I think it is about control. If Hughes can control Gracie, his GnP will be a lot more effective and get him the win - either by cuts or maybe a towel being thrown in, depending on how much punishment Hughes gives out. If Gracie can control Hughes, the GnP will be taken away, and it will make for pretty boring fight, and Hughes will win anyways because UFC judges tend to give fights to the guy on top.

 

I think Royce could control Hughes on the ground given his BJJ skills, as well as his size, so the best Hughes can do is score points and wait for the decision or try to open a cut on the old mans head with some elbows. I can't really see Hughes getting enough power for that, though, in Royces guard. People will bring up how Hughes trains with Horn and how Horn is so good on the ground, and that's true, but Horn has a different guard than Royces. Horns is offensive while Royces is more defensive. It's the difference between Nogs guard and Cro Cops, and why Fedor was more successful in Nogs, despite Nogs being more dangerous than Cro Cops. Royce will hold Hughes close to him, biding his time and waiting for the potential sub.

 

If Hughes puts Royce up against the fence, its hard to say who has the advantage because Royce uses the fence so well, but so does Matt. It will be interesting to see if Royce adjusts his style for the 5 minute rounds. Back in the day, Royce would just wait for the right moment, even if that moment took from 5 seconds, to 5 minutes, to 15 minutes to find. But he has limited time here, so will he open his guard up some more and try for subs? Royces BJJ is obviously top-notch just on the basis of who he is and how he grew up and probably has the best jiu jitsu out of anyone Hughes has fought outside BJ Penn (And if you even want to count Charuto and Newton, both those guys gave Hughes fits and nearly had him finished), so stylistically (in theory), the possibility is there for Hughes to be submitted. Though Royces BJJ isn't as pimped by the Gracies as Ricksons or Roylers or Rolls or Relsons, and not having seen Royce in BJJ competition, it's hard to say how effective his offensive BJJ is against people who know how to defend. So while in theory Royce could sub Hughes, I'm not sure about the practicality.