Wrestlemania 30 Traditional PPV Buys

[Bix]

I also think they will lose a lot of subscribers after the first six months. There certainly won't be one million active subscribers by the end of the year, although they might get a million subscriptions in total at some point.

Subscription services just don't siphon users that easily, though. You have to actively cancel. Nobody's going to keep track of when the six months are up.

[jdw]

Also, a bad traditional PPV number for Extreme Rules could mean the cable/satellite firms feel confident about taking a stand by ditching WWE, safe in the knowledge they aren't really giving much up till SummerSlam.

 

I suspect that the WWE might be fine with one or more of the major carriers (Comcast, DirecTV, Dish or TWC) *not* carrying Extreme Rules or Payback... and possibly even Money in the Bank.

 

From Chris, here are the domestic buys last year:

 

Extreme Rules 2013 (5/19/2013): 137k North American buys

Payback 2013 (6/16/2013): 108k North American buys

Money in the Bank 2013 (7/14/2013): 169k North American buys

 

Revenue to the company from these PPV is around $20 per in the books... maybe a bit more for domestic PPV rather than international, but when you do the math you get an idea of how marginal tossing in a few additional $1 per buy are. North American revenue estimate:

 

$2,740,000 Extreme Rules

$2,160,000 Payback

$3,380,000 Money in the Bank

 

Profit last year on PPVs in non-Mania quarters was 44%, 57% & 41%. The 57% was the one with SummerSlam. Let's say the profit on these is in the 44% range.

 

Lost revenue if no one carries it domestically would be $4.9M, and lost profit would be $2.2M. Which isn't chump change, but also isn't brutal.

 

Except...

 

It's not like Comcast, DirecTV, Dish and TWC (along with every other carrier) won't carry it. If there's a boycott, some will, some won't. But it won't mean all of that vanishes.

 

Except...

 

What better way to advertise the Network to people on the edge with subscribing with this:

 

Pitch No. 1: "DirecTV no longer carries WWE pay per views. Don't worry, you can get it via the WWE Network at just $9.95 a month...."

 

Pitch No. 2: "Just as DirecTV isn't carrying this PPV, we're unsure about the future with other carriers. The best way to ensure you'll get every PPV is by subscribing to the WWE Network at just $9.95 a month..."

 

There are times where "bad news" can easily be turned into good news. In sense, DirecTV would be driving potential PPV buyers to the Network every single month that they don't carry a PPV.

 

If I were Vince, I'd probably want one of these to be a dick. Everyone bailing at once creates an issue, but them dribbling out one at a time across the next year probably would be okay.

 

John

[Al]

What's really interesting to me is that instead of 150K or so buys for each PPV, you've now guaranteed 500-600K viewers for each interim PPV. They'll take a hit on revenue in the short term, perhaps. But a great deal of those subscribers may come from fans (like me) who don't necessarily follow the product on a week-to-week basis. Increased viewership in the overall product can only be beneficial to the future.