I like Nagata, and think he could be built up to making a run at/near the top. But, he wasn't even main card at the Tokyo Dome. He needs a solid six month run building him back up to make a win like that either mean anything or be plausible.
He and Nakamura will have a good match though, and that's what's most important.
Also, since I figure Nakamura holding a belt and Okada not is going to be the impetus of the build to their eventual match, I can't see him losing it now.