Not so sure about Cole's odds on RAW or SD. He absolutely dominated everyone, even way bigger guys in NXT, but when he came out at the Rumble (2017? 2018?) he looked tiny. Not just in height, but he was also very slim. Rey seemed to have a slighter bigger build.
There is absolutely no way he would be booked the same in either brand, so it would make sense for him to ponder if going to AEW is the best option.