mookeighana

I don't know what to say. I've spent a lot of time trying to convert WWE core metrics into WWE business performance into WWE stock price. It's that last translation that is super-hard to understand. First of all, the stock market on WWE seems to over-react. They get sky-high expectations and the are surprised when things don't materialize as expected. The stock went through the roof last year on the backs of the "we're live entertainment! cheap sports! like nascar!" but started to fall when they announced 667k post-WM subscribers and it crashed when the new NBCU deal came in at 1.5x old rates instead of 2x-3x. The stock was in the doldrums for awhile and got as low as $9.99 back in early January. Then they announced 1M subscribers and the stock rocketed up. The Q4 numbers came and losses were lower than expectations and the stock climbed up more and more. It's weird. They did have record revenue but they also had near-record losses. Most of the fundamental segments of the WWE are profitable - the losses came from the WWE Network and from their growing Corporate & Other segment which includes things like the airplane and NXT territory. They finally did some cost-cutting last year, so they are actually running a bit leaner in 2015 compared to where they've been in the past, though they still have the atrocious WWE Studios on the books and always claim it's on the verge of turning around. Right now - stockholders seem to be buying into the whole "we could double or triple our OIBDA" by achieving a steady average of 1.5M to 2.0M monthly paid subscribers to the WWE Network. They figure if they started the year at 1M, why can't they end the year at above 1.5M? Those of us that have seen the annual trend for WWE when it comes to PPV buys know that Jan-March is always strong and then things fall off. What's unknown is whether the same is going to happen in the new WWE Network model. Last year the company managed to grow their WWE Network numbers each quarter, but it was a painful process. They had to rush the global expansion. They had to compromise on OTT model in some places. They had to give away free months. They had to drop the six-month commitment. But in the end, the number of total paid subscribers grew from 3/31 to 12/31. This year, they're pretty much guaranteed to register a huge Q1 number for WWE Network subscribers. They ended January near 1M (though we don't know what percentage were actually paid), they did a free Feb. promotion and March has WrestleMania. Estimates vary wildly on how many people we're going to buy WM, but I guessed between 1.14M and 1.39M. The big question is how many people will stick around. WWE has been experiencing six-digit churn every single quarter. They're out of new giant markets to expand into. (UK was a big deal, and quickly became the #2 market.) What's left is China (not going to happen), Japan (while NJPW World growth demonstrates how much demand there may be the WWE Network growth would be only a bit of that), India (WWE got a massive increase in domestic TV rights from India making it the third most lucrative contract; I am doubtful they'll launch the WWE Network there if it's going annoy their TV partner Ten Sports), Germany (could add some subscribers), Italy (could add some subscribers), Pakistan (don't see it as a priority) and the wildcards of Thailand & Malaysia (again, the new TV contract may deter WWE from launching the Network). Basically, at this point, WWE needs to figure out a way to keep subscribers for the rest of the year. Once they publish a quarter where WWE Network subscriptions have declined, I expect the stock will take a hit. If you don't think it's ever going to decline, I'm sure it's a good buy now. If you think it's going to decline at some point in the future (Q2? Q3?), play your cards accordingly. Fundamentally, I am concerned that WWE's core metrics around attendance and ratings have been, at best, stagnant. If they were heading for a new boom period, I'd see WWE Network growth being a real opportunity. I think that the popularity of the current product is what galvanizes the new subscribers. There's a core base that's always going to subscribe. The $9.99 price is inoffensive to some people, like me, who keep it year round because it's not a big drag on the bank account. But WWE PPV numbers prove that there is a huge variable group which can be brought into caring about WWE product for big events or if a huge star like the Rock is involved. I've broke down some of the analyst predictions for WWE such as the one from Hilliard Lyons in February setting a price target of $18. They projected that "WWE Media" would grow from $340M (2014) to $461M (2015). That's a 36% growth coming from PPV/Network + TV + Home Entertainment + Digital Media. TV Rights are definitely going up and WWE Network should be higher, but that still feels very aggressive to me. So, you can look at these core metrics, and decide "WWE isn't going to be churning out profit tomorrow". However, what matters in the stock market game is whether more people are buying or selling the stock. There was a company (Mangrove Partners) that was shorting WWE and they took a beating recently when the price when flying up after the Q4 results. I thought a lot of people might take their wins and walk away, but instead the stock continues to grow. It's almost the tale of two forecasts - short-term people just want to hear a good number for WrestleMania. Long-term they want to believe that WWE is going to start generating record profit. (It's helps that they like to talk about their OIBDA now and ignore their depreciation which has grown substantially in the last few years.) Barrios insists that WWE has crossed the financial inflection point and they're going to start being profitable. 2014 was supposed to be the difficult transition year. The good news is that the TV Rights revenue is pretty much guaranteed. There's automatic rate escalators and they said it's not even tied to ratings. So, WWE is in a good place short of losing distribution for some unknown or unseen reason. If they ever figure out how to actually monetize social media, that'll help. (They like to conflate things so when people ask them about social media, they talk about YouTube digital rights fees.) They need a lot of subscribers to start generating the profits of yore, let alone the new world of profits. If I thought the stock was driven by that actual comparison, the future would be a clearer. Instead, WWE stock often seems to do the opposite of whatever I predict. As one investor told me on Twitter, "No offense but Chris has been dead wrong about everything having to do with $WWE and he should admit it". WWE was running short on cash so they took a pre-payment on one of their TV deals (I believe the annual report revealed it was NBCU) so they wouldn't have trouble covering the dividend. To me, that's a warning sign, but the stock market feels differently. I'm just not sophisticated enough to understand how to translate the facts about WWE business into the WWE share price. Here's the articles I wrote in the recent weeks on this subject: 2/5/15: "WWE Network Conjures Memories Of Internet Stock Bubbles" [seeking Alpha] 2/13/15: "WWE 4th-Quarter Conference Call Announces Record Annual Revenue Numbers"[bleacher Report] 2/2315: "Evaluating the WWE Network 1 Year After Its Launch" [bleacher Report] 2/26/15: "Key takeaways from WWE's 2014 Annual Report" [Wrestling Observer/F4Wonline] 3/4/15: "Assessing Potential WWE Network Subscribership" [Voices of Wrestling]

I did some tag team stats on my blog a few years ago: https://sites.google.com/site/chrisharrington/mookieghana-prowrestlingstatistics/wwf_tag_title_data I looked at a CageMatch 1963_2013 file that I put together in the 2014. The tag teams that performed together the most in that dataset (which is incomplete, especially in the pre-1992 era where I prefer to usually use History of WWE data) were: Hart Foundation: 686 matches Bushwhackers: 658 matches Dudleyz: 643 matches Hardyz: 542 matches Demolition: 539 matches (this was for Ax & Smash) Rockers: 477 matches Legion of Doom: 474 matches Smoking Gunn: 451 matches British Bulldogs: 436 matches Fabulous Rougeaus: 421 matches APA: 410 matches Christian & Edge: 344 matches Usos: 339 matches (this data was only through 2013 so there's more like 536 matches now) Harris Bros (various incarnations): 335 matches Godwinns: 317 matches Nasty Boys: 306 matches New Age Outlaws: 302 matches (again, this was only through 2013 so there's more like a dozen or more matches they've had in the past two years for WWE) Rikishi & Samu: 301 matches Killer Bees: 294 matches Headbangers: 291 matches Wild Samoans: 285 matches Bolveshiks: 277 matches Too Cool: 270 matches Cade & Murdoch: 270 matches Beverly Bros: 257 matches These are hardly "official" numbers, but they give you a relative sense. Guys before 1992 probably have at least 10% of their matches missing from those years.

Wrestlenomics Radio - 1/31/2015 - WWE hits 1 Million Subscribers BTR link: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/indeedwrestling/2015/01/31/wrestlenomics-radio--wwe-network-hits-1-million-subscribers Sticher Radio link: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/wrestlenomics-radio MP3 link: https://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/show/7/312/show_7312173.mp3 WWE announcement on Tuesday, January 27 that the WWE Network had “surpassed 1 million subscribers”. The news, coming on the heels of the Royal Rumble pay-per-view and a day of #cancelwwenetwork trends, did surprise many pro-wrestling analysts. (I was telling someone on Twitter that I didn’t believe that WWE was going to hit 1M subs for January when they replied that WWE had already produced a press release explaining that they had.) The $WWE stock surged from less than $10.50/share to almost $12/share in a matter of minutes. WWE Network Subscribers Date “Domestic” International Overall 03/31/14 495,000 n/a 495,000 04/07/14 667,287 n/a 667,287 06/30/14 699,750 n/a 699,750 09/30/14 702,883 28,476 731,359 01/27/15 ~871,500 ~128,500 1,000,648 Clearly, there was several factors which fueled the WWE Network growth since Q3 results: · WWE dropped the six-month commitment clause. · WWE only offered a single tier of $9.99 per month price point (for the over-the-top service) for most countries. · New subscribers to the WWE Network received the WWE Network free of charge for the entire month of November (including Survivor Series). · Existing subscribers to the WWE Network were being transitioned to the month-to-month billing (at $9.99/month) in December. · WWE suddenly delayed the launch of the WWE Network in the United Kingdom on November 3 at the last minute. Instead, the WWE Network was launched in the UK and Ireland on January 19. · WWE Network in Canada is available on both Rogers Cable and Eastlink (as of 12/17/14) at $11.99/month. Price for subscribers in the United Kingdom/Ireland is £9.99 and €12.99 (about $15/month). The growth since 9/30 (+268,500) was 37% international (+100,000) and 63% domestic (168,500). The international growth is telling. Clearly, the expansion in the United Kingdom was critical. It’s the WWE’s largest market outside of the United States (grossing nearly $40M annually). Finally, WWE Network growth by region is reflecting the strong international portion of the historical PPV trends - 20% of PPV revenue ($194.6M out of $244.4M over the last three years) and 40% of PPV buys (7,045,000 buys out of 11,594,000 buys over the last three years). Even though WWE had a large international roll-out on August 12, the 9/30 WWE Network international subscriber count was less than 4%. WWE is also crediting their #freefreefree campaign in November (offering new subscribers the month for free). WWE CFO George Barrios noted in his recent investor presentations that they believed the “sampling” would lead to subscriber growth. Interestingly, WWE is repeating the promotion for February (free for new subscribers, including the PPV) with an interesting caveat – subscribers in the United Kingdom & Ireland – would also be receiving a free month. The “free month” enticement is a strategy similar to the common “one-week trial” which other over-the-top subscription services offer (Netflix, Hulu, CBS All Access, etc.). In the case of the UK/Ireland subscribers, they are not only paying a premium (almost 50% above other subscribers) but roll-out was handled very poorly as the November launch was stopped at the last moment (attributed to issues with the Sky Sports TV Rights contract) – right as WWE headed overseas for their European tour. What WWE wants most is to show a steady stream of growing subscriptions from the start of 2015 through at least WrestleMania. Having made the decision to replace Elimination Chamber with Fast Lane as the February PPV, WWE was risking that subscribers might cancel and wait until closer to WrestleMania to re-subscribe. Instead, by offering a free month for new subscribers (and UK/Ireland existing subscribers) in-between, WWE is doing their best to avoid the six-digit subscriber cancellations that plagued 2014’s second and third quarters. (When will Elimination Chamber resurface? Rumors had it slated for this Summer but latest list of PPVs doesn’t include it at all. Stephanie McMahon appeared on the Nerdist network’s Wrestling Compadres Slamcast on January 14, where she said the logistics of hanging the “10 ton” chamber were tough because many arena’s had giant scoreboards in the way.)

The investor documents do have other trends we can look at which help get to core popularity for the product such as average event attendance, PPV revenue/buys, Raw/Smackdown ratings, etc. CY2014 (3 quarters): 236 events averaging 6,137/show; 9 PPV events ($41.3M in PPV + $46.2M in WWE Network) = 2,021,000 traditional PPV buys; Raw was 3.5/SM was 2.3 CY2013: 321 events averaging 5,980/show; 12 PPV events ($82.5M) = 3,838,000 buys; Raw was 3.4/SM was 2.2 CY2012: 314 events averaging 5,921/show; 12 PPV events ($83.6M) = 4,023,000 buys; Raw was 3.3/SM was 2.1 CY2011: 321 events averaging 6,174/show; 13 PPV events ($78.3M) = 3,842,000 buys; Raw was 3.6/SM was 1.9 CY2010: 327 events averaging 6,639/show; 13 PPV events ($70.2M) = 3,631,100 buys; Raw was 3.5/SM was 1.8 CY2009: 342 events averaging 6,933/show; 14 PPV events ($80.0M) = 4,490,200 buys; Raw was 3.7/SM was 2.0 CY2008: 319 events averaging 6,907/show; 14 PPV events ($91.4M) = 5,034,400 buys; Raw was 3.4/SM was 2.4 CY2007: 308 events averaging 6,868/show; 15 PPV events ($94.3M) = 5,200,800 buys; Raw was 3.7/SM was 2.7 T2006 (this was a transition year from May 2006 to Dec 2006): 246 events averaging 5,334/show; 11 PPV events ($53.4M) = 3,287,300 buys; Raw was 3.9/SM was 2.4 FY2006: 300 events averaging 5,713/show; 16 PPV events ($94.8M) = 6,241,100 buys; Raw was 4.0/SM was 2.8 FY2005: 325 events averaging 4,977/show; 14 PPV events ($85.5M) = 5,280,800 buys; Raw was 3.7/SM was 3.2 FY2004: 329 events averaging 5,006/show; 12 PPV events ($95.3M) = 5,604,000 buys; Raw was 3.8/SM was 3.3 FY2003: 327 events averaging 5,551/show; 12 PPV events ($91.1M) = 5,378,100 buys; Raw was 3.7/SM was 3.4 FY2002: 237 events averaging 8,562/show; 12 PPV events ($112.0M) = 7,135,464 buys; Raw was 4.6/SM was 4.0 FY2001: 212 events averaging 11,556/show; 12 PPV events ($128.2M) = 8,010,400 buys; Raw was 5.95/SM was 4.6 FY2000: 206 events averaging 12,064/show; 12 PPV events ($106.4M) = 6,884,600 buys; Raw was 6.2/SM was 4.7 FY1999: 199 events averaging 11,426/show; 12 PPV events ($81.0M) = 5,365,100 buys; Raw was 5.0 FY1998: 218 events averaging 7,230/show; 12 PPV events = 2,936,100 buys; Raw was 3.1 FY1997: 199 events averaging 5,330/show; 12 PPV events = 2,252,200 buys; Raw was 2.4 FY1996: 247 events averaging 3,773/show; 12 PPV events = 2,831,700 buys; Raw was 3.0 Obviously, there's a lot of factors at play, but overall, after a few years of what I'd call stagnation, WWE is trending up slightly. Looking at metrics like this only tell us about larger trends so obviously the question "Was Roman Reigns the right person to win the Rumble" isn't going to be answered by talking about 2004 Unallocated Corporate Expenses. The boom period is leagues difference from today. (However, WWE's has evolved into a revenue-generating machine. Raising PPV prices, running far more live events and expanding on the revenues generated by each division - especially TV rights - has lead to years such as 2010 being incredibly profitable, for instance.)

Here's what WWE published about the revised OIBDA levels for 2015 WWE Network profitability: Q3 press release (see last page) Annual Average Monthly Paid Subscribers / Operating Income / Depreciation / OIBDA 500,000 / -$38M to -$18M / $28M / -$10M to +$10M 1,000,000 / $17M to +$37M / $28M / +$45M to $65M 1,500,000 / $72M to $92M / $28M / $100M to $120M 2,000,000 / $127M to $147M / $28M / $155M to $175M 2,500,000 / $182M to $202M / $28M / $210M to $230M So, the "break-even" point is about 500k/month. (For comparison, last year, they probably averaged about 715,000 between Q1 and Q4.) So the midpoint would be like maybe $24M from the WWE Network if they did that in 2015. The issue is that in 2011 (before they started spending money on developing what became the WWE Network) they made $78.3M in PPV and earned $40.7M in Profit. If you wanted to hit that level, you'd need to average about 870,000 for 2015. And that's just replicating old PPV revenue profitability. You've still sacrificed profit for several years and you're just getting back to where you started. It's got to be higher to be a huge success. However, that doesn't mean I was caught completely off-guard by WWE hitting 1M already. I do expect they'll continue to swell through WrestleMania. Last year, they added almost 20k a day in the week between 3/31 and WrestleMania. However, last year, we also saw new subscribers completely stagnant for 6 months (growing at 360/day). What will happen this year? Very hard to say. Especially without an idea of what we ended 12/31 at. Was it a swell that started since the UK launch? Was it really carry-over from the November #freefreefree promotion? How the heck did they sell 100k Survivor Series?! So many questions. It's a positive development that the WWE released a number and actually had their stock swell on the news.

Wrestlenomics Radio Returns - 1/18/2015 I talk about WWE's listed "Key Objectives" for 2015 and supply my own five keys to success. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/indeedwrestling/2015/01/18/wrestlenomics-radio--keys-to-wwes-success-in-2015 50 minutes.

It was my wrestlenomics approach taking WON ratings for Rumble (and looking at it per match, best match and time-weighted match). It's a tongue-in-cheek thing (since I know it's hardly definitive) but I figured I'd offer a "definitive ranking" 1-27.

1. 2001: 3 (avg rating) / 4.75 (max rating) / 3.47 (time wgt rating). 2. 1995: 3.2 (avg rating) / 4.25 (max rating) / 3.43 (time wgt rating). 3. 2008: 2.8 (avg rating) / 4.25 (max rating) / 3.48 (time wgt rating). 4. 2013: 3 (avg rating) / 4 (max rating) / 3.32 (time wgt rating). 5. 2014: 2.85 (avg rating) / 4 (max rating) / 3.32 (time wgt rating). 6. 2007: 2.7 (avg rating) / 4 (max rating) / 3.45 (time wgt rating). 7. 2002: 2.63 (avg rating) / 4.25 (max rating) / 3.28 (time wgt rating). 8. 2003: 2.38 (avg rating) / 4.75 (max rating) / 2.96 (time wgt rating). 9. 2009: 2.7 (avg rating) / 3.75 (max rating) / 3.18 (time wgt rating). 10. 2000: 2.29 (avg rating) / 4.5 (max rating) / 3.05 (time wgt rating). 11. 1991: 2.75 (avg rating) / 4 (max rating) / 2.59 (time wgt rating). 12. 2011: 2.5 (avg rating) / 3.5 (max rating) / 3.26 (time wgt rating). 13. 1988: 2.75 (avg rating) / 3.5 (max rating) / 2.91 (time wgt rating). 14. 2010: 2.33 (avg rating) / 3.5 (max rating) / 3.09 (time wgt rating). 15. 2004: 1.75 (avg rating) / 3.75 (max rating) / 3.06 (time wgt rating). 16. 1998: 2.38 (avg rating) / 3.5 (max rating) / 2.57 (time wgt rating). 17. 1992: 1.95 (avg rating) / 3.75 (max rating) / 2.8 (time wgt rating). 18. 1993: 2.25 (avg rating) / 4 (max rating) / 1.32 (time wgt rating). 19. 2012: 2.25 (avg rating) / 3.25 (max rating) / 2.82 (time wgt rating). 20. 1999: 1.83 (avg rating) / 3.75 (max rating) / 1.93 (time wgt rating). 21. 2006: 1.38 (avg rating) / 3.5 (max rating) / 2.6 (time wgt rating). 22. 1994: 2 (avg rating) / 3.25 (max rating) / 2.25 (time wgt rating). 23. 1996: 2.25 (avg rating) / 2.75 (max rating) / 2.47 (time wgt rating). 24. 1997: 1.79 (avg rating) / 3 (max rating) / 2.22 (time wgt rating). 25. 2005: 1.6 (avg rating) / 3.25 (max rating) / 1.28 (time wgt rating). 26. 1989: 1.5 (avg rating) / 2.5 (max rating) / 2.14 (time wgt rating). 27. 1990: 0.8 (avg rating) / 3 (max rating) / 1.82 (time wgt rating).

I haven't been updated this lately, but here are three things I did in the last two weeks: Things I've published recently: * Will WWE be bringing WrestleMania to Minneapolis? (WhatCulture) * Comprehensive WWE/NXT 2014 Stats (IndeedWrestling.com) * WWE Again Announces Plans to Launch the WWE Network in UK and Ireland (Bleacher Report) I've got a big piece (5 Keys for WWE in 2015) for SeekingAlpha which I'm working on this week.

The studios were losing lots of money in the early years. Besides The Marine, almost everything either lost money or broke even. In the past 18 months, things have changed in that they changed how they distribute and finance the movies and that they've been taking on much less risk. Things like Miz's made-for-TV movie made money for instance. The Call made money. However, the only thing that made gobs and gobs of money was the original The Marine. Things like The Condemned and Barricade (what's that? yes, exactly.) cost them dearly. Yes, in aggregate they've lost tons of money, but the performance in the last 18 months have been better and some of these revenue streams are turning positive after 6-9 months after release (so the first quarter after the SEC filing it might still be down but overall they're seeing return on their investment). Don't get me wrong - I've strongly advocated that it's an albatross and a terrible way to try to make a buck. Still, complaining about the money losses in 2014 is WAY behind the times. The film impairment charges were all last year. Now it's Network expenses and foregone TV money (due to less leverage negotiating) and foregone PPV money (due to pissing off the providers and overestimating the subscribers for their service). They've lost WAY more on that then anything they did on the Studios/Films project.

Thanks! Last night, I did a non-wrestlenomics radio appearance on "In the Room": http://www.stitcher.com/s?eid=36314644 There was many, many co-hosts (including the 'stro from WCW) but I monopolized the time starting from about 10 minutes in through 1:15. A lot of chatter about the WWE Network (including stealing the WWE version of "Liquid TV" idea from the Goodhelmet/Loss show) and discussion of things Barrios said in yesterday's UBS conference, the history of the WWE Network and how they ended up there, profit comparisons before/after WWE, the age old "what would it take to make wrestling hot again" question, speculation on what's left to do and more. It was a lot of fun.

Here were the Best Twenty of the 1990s DVDVR list matches I could find: #4 Jushin Liger vs. Naoki Sano New Japan (1/31/90 - IWGP Jr. Title) #19 Big Van Vader vs. Stan Hansen New Japan "Super Fight" (2/10/90 - IWGP Title) #17 Keiji Mutoh/Masa Chono vs. Hiroshi Hase/Kensuke Sasaki New Japan (11/1/90 - IWGP Tag Titles) #9 Keiji Mutoh vs. Masa Chono New Japan G-1 '91 (8/11/91 - Finals) #7 Great Sasuke vs. Jushin Liger New Japan Super J Cup '94 (4/16/94 - Semis) #1 Great Sasuke vs. Wild Pegasus New Japan Super J Cup '94 (4/16/94 - Finals) #16 Vader vs. Antonio Inoki New Japan (1/4/96) #15 Great Sasuke vs. Ultimo Dragon New Japan J-Crown Tourney (8/5/96 - Finals) #13 Shinya Hashimoto vs. Genichiro Tenryu New Japan G-1 '98 (8/1/98 - Quarters)

FWIW, I went through the DVDVR "Best of the 1980s New Japan" results and with the help of two F4W posters (AlkalineKrogan & BenBoring) here are the links to the matches that are available: 1. 5-on-5 Gauntlet Challenge (4/19/84) [last part] 2. Andre the Giant vs. Stan Hansen (9/23/81) 4. Antonio Inoki, Tatsumi Fujinami, Kengo Kimura, Umanosuke Ueda & Kantaro Hoshino vs. Akira Maeda, Yoshiaki Fujiwara, Osamu Kido, Nobuhiko Takada & Kazuo Yamazaki (3/26/86) 6. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Akira Maeda (6/12/86) 8. 5-on-5 Challenge (5/1/86) [Part One] , [Part Two] , [Part Three],[Part Four],[Part Five, [Part Six],[Part Seven],[Part Eight],[Part Nine] 10. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Riki Choshu (4/3/83) 13. Antonio Inoki vs. Yoshiaki Fujiwara (2/6/86) 15. Shinya Hashimoto vs. Vader (4/24/89) 16. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Riki Choshu (8/4/83) 21. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Riki Choshu (7/7/83) 22. Antonio Inoki vs. Masa Saito (4/27/87) 23. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Dynamite Kid (2/5/80) 24. Akira Maeda vs. Yoshiaki Fujiwara (2/5/86) 25. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Vader (4/24/89) 26. Antonio Inoki vs. Dick Murdoch (6/19/86) 27. Shinya Hashimoto vs. Victor Zangiev (4/24/89) 30. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Riki Choshu (6/24/88) 35. Antonio Inoki vs. Vader (7/29/88) 37. Antonio Inoki vs. Stan Hansen (4/3/80) 40. Antonio Inoki vs. Riki Choshu (2/22/89) 44. Jushin Liger vs. Naoki Sano (7/13/89) 45. Tatsumi Fujinami & Kengo Kimura vs. Antonio Inoki & Seiji Sakaguchi (12/12/85) 46. Akira Maeda & Nobuhiko Takada vs. Yoshiaki Fujiwara & Kazuo Yamazaki (9/1/87) 53. Nobuhiko Takada & Akira Maeda vs. Keiji Mutoh & Shiro Koshinaka (3/20/87) 62. Bob Backlund vs. Stan Hansen (9/30/80) 67. Antonio Inoki vs. Stan Hansen (2/8/80) 69. Tiger Mask vs. Steven Wright (4/1/82) 71. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Vader (6/26/88) 72. Antonio Inoki, Akira Maeda & Yoshiaki Fujiwara vs. Riki Choshu, Yoshiaki Yatsu & Animal Hamaguchi, (2/9/84) 73. Tiger Mask vs. Gran Hamada (11/6/81) 77. Antonio Inoki & Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Andre the Giant & Rene Goulet (12/10/81) 78. Antonio Inoki vs. Stan Hansen (4/23/81) 87. Gran Hamada vs. Babyface (4/3/80) 89. Tiger Mask vs. Kuniaki Kobayashi (1/6/83) 90. Antonio Inoki & Keiichi Yamada vs. Nobuhiko Takada & Osamu Kido (2/5/86) 98. Nobuhiko Takada vs. Shiro Koshinaka (2/5/87) 107. Nobuhiko Takada & Akira Maeda vs. Keiji Mutoh & Shiro Koshinaka (3/26/87) 124. Akira Maeda vs. Don Nakaya Nielsen (10/9/86) 126. Hulk Hogan vs. Abdullah the Butcher (5/26/82) 128. Akira Maeda vs. Nobuhiko Takada (1/3/86) 133. Dick Murdoch vs. Abdullah the Butcher (7/7/83) 140. Nobuhiko Takada vs. Shiro Koshinaka (8/5/86) 143. Tatsumi Fujinami vs. Chavo Guerrero (5/9/80) 150. Keiichi Yamada vs. Masakazu Funaki (12/27/87) 162. Tiger Mask vs. El Canek (12/8/81) 165. Tiger Mask vs. Dynamite Kid (4/21/83) 171. Tiger Mask vs. Dynamite Kid (4/23/81) 173. Tiger Mask vs. Black Tiger (5/26/82) (Apologies if I am not supposed to post match links in this thread.)

That really got my goat. I kept thinking, "I looked at Morales as a headliner" in my own research. I wasn't confused by his place in history. But suddenly because Dave did the headline count, it's now official? I don't get it. At this point, he really should consider moving things into a body of people who help make the decisions so they don't come across so arbitrarily.

So, I ended up collecting around 25 ballots. The people who did the best on my sample were R&R, Ivan Koloff, Cien Caras, Carlos Colon and Missionaries of Death. The top four finishers were R&R, Brock Lesnar, Carlos Colon and Cien Caras. So, we identified three of the top five (R&R, Colon, Caras) very strongly. Volk Han and Anderson were the #5 and #6 (neither made my cut). #7 was Ivan Koloff. I've updated the actual results in red and included where various candidates finished among reporters & historians which were the ballots that I ended up collecting. (The line between who is a "reporter" and who is a "historian" is always fuzzy. I do research on results and publish stats. At the same time I write about modern wrestling and the WWE business for Bleacher Report. No idea which one Dave counts me as.) People who on both Historians/Reporters top 30 list: Brock Lesnar: Historians #2 / Reporters #1 Cien Caras: Historians #4 / Reporters #4 Rock & Roll Express: Historians #5 / Reporters #3 Carlos Colon: Historians #8 / Reporters #2 Ivan Koloff: Historians #7 / Reporters #15 Bill Apter: Historians #11 / Reporters #16 Gene & Ole Anderson: Historians #18 / Reporters #12 Stanley Weston: Historians #14 / Reporters #19 Karloff Lagarde: Historians #28 / Reporters #5 Jerry Jarrett: Historians #30 / Reporters #8 Jesse Ventura: Historians #16 / Reporters #22 Dick Murdoch: Historians #10 / Reporters #29 Blue Panther: Historians #15 / Reporters #25 Jim Crockett Sr.: Historians #24 / Reporters #18 Pedro Morales: Historians #22 / Reporters #23 Sting: Historians #27 / Reporters #21 (I underlined the people who weren't mentioned on my original list.) The people who finished above 40% that weren't yet mentioned were Volk Han (#3 with Historians, #4 with Active wrestlers), The Assassins (#5 for Former Wrestlers, #14 for Active Wrestlers, #9 for Reporters, #19 Historians), Sharpe Brothers (#7 for Reporters, #26 for Active Wrestlers), Mark Lewin (#9 for Historians, #13 for Former Wrestlers).

Exactly. I like "larger-than-life" wrestling characters and Nasty Boys always epitomized that. However, I'm always stunned at how few "great" matches are out there with them. I keep hoping we'll come across a hidden gem from some indy or from early in their career.

Any week now. This week Dave is going to want to cover WWE Financial results and the UK Network non-launch which make me think unless it's a double issue, it won't be until next week at the earliest.

I had a good time talking with Jeff & Rob on the show and I fully acknowledge that I often just go off on my own tangents regardless of what questions I was actually asked.

I'm dubious about Punk being listed as one of the big draw guy. He's a great wrestler, but when you look at Brock's record, who was his weakest opponent? Punk at SummerSlam. Even MITB 2011, while a memorable environment, was not monster business for WWE. Maybe distance makes the fan's wallet grow fonder, but I think he's not in the league of Rock, Brock or even Austin when it comes to being a meaningful draw as part of a mega-event atraction match.

I started listening to this episode on my drive to work. I liked seeing the Rock work with Rusev because like a DQ finish with Roman Reigns, I don't think this hurts Rusev's ability to stay as a top heel. He sparred with the Rock and I do believe there's something worthwhile to that. Furthermore, it gave the large, live crowd something special. The fact that it didn't do much for the ratings isn't great because I think we're starting on the new NBCU television deal and WWE would certainly like to keep their corporate parent happy. I get your point with La Resistance and Eugene failing to be elevated by Rock's interaction, but well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. Totally disagree about the mustard. I love mustard in pro-wrestling. Whether it's the Tupelo Concession Stand brawl, El Hot Dog or Kane wrestling covered in condiments, I love it. As Floyd Pepper points out in the Great Muppet Caper: "I brought some hot mustard, maybe that will eat through the bars." Ambrose will be able to escape from Jail now. Smart move.

I guess that seems a little draconian to me. First of all, while Dave does "throttle" the voting (via who he deems "eligible" to get a ballot), it would seem pretty restrictive of him to also control exactly what categories people voted in. People's understanding of territories and wrestlers transform over time. To be honest, it's most likely the wrestlers who are doing the most "voting with blinders on" that have the least amount of perspective about all of the candidates in a single category. There's not a lot of wrestlers who worked with Snuka, Edge, Sting and Ivan Koloff (besides maybe Flair?) yet all four are in the "modern candidates" category together. For the most part, I believe that people are pretty good about sticking to where they "belong". Once Colon is done with his hodge-podge category, there'll be a lot better thought going against who is left in there. PS - I subtly added another ballot this morning to the original post.

Updated with some additional ballots. People trending over 40% AUSTRALIA/PACIFIC ISLANDS/CARIBBEAN/AFRICA -- Carlos Colon (12 out of 12) = 100% EUROPE -- Big Daddy (2 out of 4) = 50% HISTORICAL -- Stanley Weston (7 out of 16) = 44% JAPAN -- Gran Hamada (6 out of 13) = 46% JAPAN -- Jun Akiyama (6 out of 13) = 46% MEXICO -- Cien Caras (8 out of 9) = 89% MEXICO -- El Signo & El Texano & Negro Navarro (5 out of 9) = 56% MEXICO -- Karloff Lagarde (4 out of 9) = 44% MODERN -- Brock Lesnar (9 out of 22) = 41% MODERN -- Dick Murdoch (10 out of 22) = 45% MODERN -- Ivan Koloff (12 out of 22) = 55% MODERN -- Jerry Jarrett (10 out of 22) = 45% MODERN -- Jesse Ventura (10 out of 22) = 45% MODERN -- Jimmy Hart (10 out of 22) = 45% MODERN -- Rock & Roll Express (Ricky Morton & Robert Gibson) (17 out of 22) = 77%

Nice job, Chris. It looks like I won't need to be tracking these after all, since you had every ballot that I had, plus others, and can probably obtain more anonymous ballots than I could, so I'll drop out of the ballot collection and wish you well with this. Someone suggested the project to me on Twitter. I started hunting ballots. Half-way through I came across your post and I felt bad because it seemed like I just swooped in unannounced and stole your thunder! I did want to apologize for that because that wasn't my intention. It was really just two people doing the same thing at the same time. Glad you confirmed that I haven't missed any ballots (yet) that you saw. I really had no clue if I missed any.

Ballots I've seen: jeremydalewall http://theboard.f4wonline.com/viewtopic.php?p=5233215#p5233215 mookieghana https://twitter.com/mookieghana/status/519103426941419520 DezWalker http://theboard.f4wonline.com/viewtopic.php?p=5233434#p5233434 WTFBix http://theboard.f4wonline.com/viewtopic.php?p=5229544#p5229544 Alan4L http://theboard.f4wonline.com/viewtopic.php?p=5232383#p5232383 W2BTD http://theboard.f4wonline.com/viewtopic.php?p=5232712#p5232712 DylanWaco http://theboard.f4wonline.com/viewtopic.php?p=5232944#p5232944 Bryan Rose http://www.voicesofwrestling.com/2014/10/03/a-first-time-voters-experience-ballot/ Crimson Mask http://wrestlingclassics.com/.ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=7;t=000556;p=1#000025 Steve Yohe http://wrestlingclassics.com/.ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=7;t=000556;p=1#000032 clawmaster64 http://prowrestlingonly.com/index.php?/topic/28537-2014-wrestling-observer-hall-of-fame-thread/?p=5624403 Kris Zellner http://wrestlingclassics.com/.ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=7;t=000556;p=3#000098 Mark Madden http://www.wrestlezone.com/editorials/516249-wrestling-observer-hall-of-fame-ballot kjh http://prowrestlingonly.com/index.php?/topic/28537-2014-wrestling-observer-hall-of-fame-thread/?p=5630959 evilclown http://prowrestlingonly.com/index.php?/topic/28537-2014-wrestling-observer-hall-of-fame-thread/?p=5630884 Bruce Mitchell http://prowrestlingonly.com/index.php?/topic/28537-2014-wrestling-observer-hall-of-fame-thread/?p=5631165 New Ballots (now included) -- update: RobViper https://twitter.com/RobViper/status/519496264833310720 TheCubsFan https://twitter.com/luchablog/status/519336243734515713 Rob McCarron (emailed to me) Ian Hamilton (also emailed to me) Will Cooling (also emailed to me) John Patton (also emailed to me) Jose Fernandez (also emailed to me) Anonymous Voter (passed on through an emissary) Vote Count Rock & Roll Express (Ricky Morton & Robert Gibson): 17 votes Carlos Colon: 13 votes Ivan Koloff: 12 votes Jimmy Hart: 10 votes Jesse Ventura: 10 votes Dick Murdoch: 10 votes Jerry Jarrett: 10 votes Brock Lesnar: 9 votes Cien Caras: 9 votes Gene Okerlund: 8 votes Stanley Weston: 7 votes Edge: 7 votes Bill Apter: 6 votes Gene Anderson & Ole Anderson: 6 votes Jun Akiyama: 6 votes Junkyard Dog: 6 votes Gran Hamada: 6 votes El Signo & El Texano & Negro Navarro: 6 votes Wilbur Snyder: 5 votes Enrique Torres: 5 votes Don Owen: 5 votes George Scott: 5 votes Howard Finkel: 5 votes Karloff Lagarde: 5 votes Jim Crockett Sr.: 4 votes Ken Patera: 4 votes Gorilla Monsoon: 4 votes Assassins: 4 votes Volk Han: 4 votes Yuji Nagata: 4 votes Akira Taue: 4 votes Blue Panther: 4 votes Villano III: 4 votes Kinji Shibuya: 3 votes CM Punk: 3 votes Jimmy Snuka: 3 votes Gary Hart: 3 votes Big Daddy: 3 votes Pedro Morales: 3 votes Mike & Ben Sharpe: 2 votes Ultimate Warrior: 2 votes Dr. Wagner Jr.: 2 votes Mark Lewin: 2 votes Satoshi Kojima & Hiroyoshi Tenzan: 2 votes Johnny "Mr. Wrestling II" Walker: 2 votes Dave Brown: 2 votes Brazo de Oro & Brazo de Plata & El Brazo: 2 votes Sting: 2 votes Jim Crockett Jr.: 2 votes Huracan Ramirez: 2 votes Minoru Suzuki: 1 vote Von Brauners: 1 vote Larry Matysik: 1 vote Owen Hart: 1 vote Kiyoshi Tamura: 1 vote Pepper Gomez: 1 vote Johnny Saint: 1 vote Jackie Pallo: 1 vote Masahiko Kimura: 1 vote Fabulous Moolah: 1 vote King Kong Czaja: 1 vote Ciclon Negro: 1 vote Updated: 10/8/14 at 8 AM (CST) If you're a WON HOF voter or you see a WON HOF voter's ballot, please consider sending me a link to your ballots, or email me ([email protected]) or send me a board PM. Obviously, keep in mind that it's about percentage amongst those voting in a territory. In other words, Missionaries of Death are doing a lot better than Edge because they've been on most Mexico ballots while Edge is only on a fraction of the Modern US/Canada ballots.

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