cm funk Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 WWE has kind of become a stopover for corporate pros in the entertainment/sports arena. They get paid really well and WWE is high profile enough, but it's a cool-off period or launching pad for the people from "outside the biz" who go to work there. Just look at the guy they had spearheading a lot of the network stuff, who skipped town to a better job with the NFL almost immediately after the WWEN launched. I do think WWE has really evolved a lot in terms of corporate structure and advancing themselves as a brand, and making themselves more mainstream.....the whole "PG era" is a testament to that.....but it's still far from perfectly executed. And it is a herculean task in a lot of ways getting wrestling to be accepted mainstream. I'm happy that they've made a lot of positive strides in that direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdw Posted May 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 God, and I thought my subscriber estimation of 800k was high. They want at least 2 million for 2015???? They expect to double the Network subscribers in 18 months? I might ask John if he can drop that Konnan quote we love so much...damn. Here's the thing: it was just launched in the US. They're talking about a Global number, as they launch the Network around the world. Is it realistic? Who knows. I do tend to think that over time they will be doing comfortably over 1M in the US. By the end of the year? Maybe, maybe not. By some point in 2015? No doubt... almost certainly by the time Mania airs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cm funk Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Speaking of market research and fan demographic, I remember Meltzer mentioning several times how along with the WNBA, that WWE has the most liberal audience of all sports. What study did that info come from? Compared to what though? NFL has some of the most violent, angry, biggotted etc. etc. choose your label fans. NBA fanbase isn't anything to sneeze at on that level either. MLB's demo *according to surveys* is mostly older people. It wouldn't surprise me that in comparison WWE's audience, which enjoys watching half naked guys fighting, is considered more liberal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Speaking of market research and fan demographic, I remember Meltzer mentioning several times how along with the WNBA, that WWE has the most liberal audience of all sports. What study did that info come from? Compared to what though? NFL has some of the most violent, angry, biggotted etc. etc. choose your label fans. NBA fanbase isn't anything to sneeze at on that level either. MLB's demo *according to surveys* is mostly older people. It wouldn't surprise me that in comparison WWE's audience, which enjoys watching half naked guys fighting, is considered more liberal. It's a line that Meltzer has thrown around without that context, which is why I am curious about learning more, and what the actual study was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherspammer Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Speaking of market research and fan demographic, I remember Meltzer mentioning several times how along with the WNBA, that WWE has the most liberal audience of all sports. What study did that info come from? Compared to what though? NFL has some of the most violent, angry, biggotted etc. etc. choose your label fans. NBA fanbase isn't anything to sneeze at on that level either. MLB's demo *according to surveys* is mostly older people. It wouldn't surprise me that in comparison WWE's audience, which enjoys watching half naked guys fighting, is considered more liberal. It's a line that Meltzer has thrown around without that context, which is why I am curious about learning more, and what the actual study was. I remember Meltzer reporting this several years ago. WWE viewers were "more liberal" in that more of them voted/were registered Democrats than Republicans. At the time, a large portion of WWE's audience was Hispanic, so I'm not sure this is still the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdw Posted May 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 So Wall Street seems to be thinking the WWE got a 50% increase in their Comcast/NBCU deal, not the 2x or 3x they were hoping for. I'm think this is in line with what a lot of us expected. They weren't going to get a $200M a year deal in the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 This is the study: http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/excited-about-march-madness-then-you-could-be-one-of-the-most-politically-moderate-sports-fans-20130318 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cm funk Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 WWE (pro-wrestling) having a lower voter turnout than MONSTER TRUCKS is disheartening, but I take these surveys/polls with several grains of salt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherspammer Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Yeah, I tried to follow the links to something about the raw data of the poll, but couldn't find anything (I'm on my phone). I wonder if age demographics has anything to do with the low voter turnout of WWE fans? The poll I referenced in my earlier post is older. I read about it in the WON, and I haven't subscribed in almost 5 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookeighana Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 So Wall Street seems to be thinking the WWE got a 50% increase in their Comcast/NBCU deal, not the 2x or 3x they were hoping for. I'm think this is in line with what a lot of us expected. They weren't going to get a $200M a year deal in the US. Basically, as far as I can tell, people are looking at the "business outlook" and doing the math as such: +$92M = new deals. That breaks out as: +$20M from UK deal ($10M tripled) +$3M from Thailand deal ($500k increase 7x) +$12M projected India deal (double the $12M) That leaves ~$57M for the US deal. The Raw/Smackdown was around $90M, so new TV rights would be around $140-$150M for Raw & Smackdown. That's about 60% increase. Now, there's the whole issue that the first two parts of the WWE chart seem to just be domestic numbers and then suddenly it jumps to worldwide and/or they're carefully cherry-picking TV shows to include/exclude (for instance, we've heard from WWE that the $200M does NOT include Total Divas), but the bottom line is that they didn't double domestic TV rights. In fact, they came in right near where some people were projecting -- I ran a poll at F4W and that was basically the weighted result. I wrote a piece on Wednesday that guessed that "the new deal would start at $160M/year". But some people had sky-high expectations. Ironically, the very first analyst I ever spoke with told me that based on his analysis of ad rates, he couldn't fathom why NBCU would ever pay more than $160M-$180M. That's been the artificial ceiling I've shared with people, and it looks like he was right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookeighana Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Yeah, I tried to follow the links to something about the raw data of the poll, but couldn't find anything (I'm on my phone). I wonder if age demographics has anything to do with the low voter turnout of WWE fans? The poll I referenced in my earlier post is older. I read about it in the WON, and I haven't subscribed in almost 5 years. I've seen these charts for beer drinkers and other subjects. I think they're cross-referencing voter profiles by race/income level with the sports survey and drawing their conclusions from that. I don't believe they actually asked these questions directly at all. As for the original research, see: http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/04/22/In-Depth/Fight-fan-avidity.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookeighana Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Thank Goodness - WWE just announced they'd host a conference call on Monday: STAMFORD, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- WWE (NYSE:WWE) announced that it will host a conference call on Monday, May 19, 2014 to discuss the Company’s 2014 and 2015 Business Outlook. The Company’s Chairman & CEO, Vincent K. McMahon, and the Company’s Chief Strategy & Financial Officer, George Barrios, will host the conference call beginning at 11:00 a.m. ET. All interested parties are welcome to listen to a live web cast that will be hosted through the Company’s web site at corporate.wwe.com. Participants can access the conference call by dialing 1-888-424-8151 or 1-847-585-4422 using the passcode: 7849998. Please reserve a line 15 minutes prior to the start time of the conference call. The Company’s Business Outlook release to be referenced during the call is available at ir.corporate.wwe.com. A replay of the call will be available after the conference call concludes, and can be accessed on the Company’s web site. A little late, but better than nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrisZ Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Meltz reported today that Vince lost 350 million bucks personally in the last 24 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdw Posted May 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 The stock is basically back where it was in October before it got run up. The smart people bought early in the run up, and got off in Feb-Mar. Good lord for any idiots who bought in Feb-Mar and are still holding today, or were trying to unload today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kjh Posted May 18, 2014 Report Share Posted May 18, 2014 God, and I thought my subscriber estimation of 800k was high. They want at least 2 million for 2015???? They expect to double the Network subscribers in 18 months? I might ask John if he can drop that Konnan quote we love so much...damn. Here's the thing: it was just launched in the US. They're talking about a Global number, as they launch the Network around the world. Is it realistic? Who knows. I do tend to think that over time they will be doing comfortably over 1M in the US. By the end of the year? Maybe, maybe not. By some point in 2015? No doubt... almost certainly by the time Mania airs. WWE in their latest press release is still touting 2.0-3.0 million potential subscribers in the US and 0.5-0.8 million in the international markets of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong and the Nordics (the countries they'll launch the Network in by the end of 2014) for a total of 2.5-3.8 million at steady state. Partly that's because they expect a higher take rate of 4-6% domestic compared with 2-3% elsewhere. Of course, that's based on 52M WWE Broadband Homes in the U.S. and 25M in the other markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kjh Posted May 18, 2014 Report Share Posted May 18, 2014 The stock is basically back where it was in October before it got run up. The smart people bought early in the run up, and got off in Feb-Mar. Good lord for any idiots who bought in Feb-Mar and are still holding today, or were trying to unload today. The smart people short sold the stock and are now calling for the company's Board of Directors to replace their executive management team or explore the option of selling the business. http://www.cagesideseats.com/wwe/2014/5/17/5726192/wwe-investors-call-for-vince-mcmahons-head-on-a-platter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goc Posted May 18, 2014 Report Share Posted May 18, 2014 Yea, none of that is going to happen and there is nothing they can do to force a change in management even if they bought all the stock available. And for all that hot air if Vince stepped down tomorrow I'm pretty sure the stock would take another huge hit instead of rebounding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cm funk Posted May 18, 2014 Report Share Posted May 18, 2014 Did you screengrab sad, red eyed Vince from the Ultimate Warrior piece on the Network? That's poor form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt D Posted May 18, 2014 Report Share Posted May 18, 2014 Did you screengrab sad, red eyed Vince from the Ultimate Warrior piece on the Network? That's poor form Vince standing next to Linda when she was doing her "I lost the race" speech would be way better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strummer Posted May 18, 2014 Report Share Posted May 18, 2014 Will Stephanie and HHH adopt Vince's worldview? It's tough to get a perspective on them because wrestling interviews in the media are total fluff. Hunter seems like an old school guy but seems to be somewhat of a size freak due to his bodybuilding obession. I've never really heard Steph's philosophies on the business but something tells me they aren't far away from Vince's. Apparently she was supportive of Jericho backstage in the early 2000s but I don't remember much more than that. Oh yeah she did want to push Dan Rodimer to the moon about a decade ago. Umm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyonthewall2983 Posted May 19, 2014 Report Share Posted May 19, 2014 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bn99kaZCcAAW3bW.jpg:large Thought this was funny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdw Posted May 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2014 The stock is basically back where it was in October before it got run up. The smart people bought early in the run up, and got off in Feb-Mar. Good lord for any idiots who bought in Feb-Mar and are still holding today, or were trying to unload today. The smart people short sold the stock and are now calling for the company's Board of Directors to replace their executive management team or explore the option of selling the business. http://www.cagesideseats.com/wwe/2014/5/17/5726192/wwe-investors-call-for-vince-mcmahons-head-on-a-platter Funniest shit I've ever heard. The board is hand picked by Vince. He has the shares to dump all of the board at any time he wants. And the "smart people" know it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyonthewall2983 Posted May 20, 2014 Report Share Posted May 20, 2014 Just how serious is this latest loss going to affect the company? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt D Posted May 20, 2014 Report Share Posted May 20, 2014 Oh good. Vince losing 350 Million is now the top trending thing on facebook. That should be fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookeighana Posted May 20, 2014 Report Share Posted May 20, 2014 Just how serious is this latest loss going to affect the company? If WWE can't portray itself as a company that avoids over-promising and under-delivering to investors, it hurts their standing. They're going to have a hard time attracting talented professionals to lead important company projects (they still need to replace Singerman leading the WWE Network and Perkins Miller leading the Digital Media division) and they're going to have a hard to giving out bonuses to top talent to retain them (stock options are a lot more valuable at $30/share than $10/share). Also, it's going to make it tougher for the company to cut good deals with companies. This global WWE Network launch is no small feat and going to require a lot of negotiations on their part and possibly some strategic partnerships with the MVPDs. Vince outright admitted that launching the domestic WWE Network hurt their standing in the NBCU deal, and while they keep promising increase for the India TV rights, this latest failure could be a wakeup call that WWE may have overplayed their hand seriously when it comes to what they can demand for television rights. Ultimately, it puts more pressure on the company to make the WWE Network profitable, and also to cut costs in other divisions - particularly television. Ultimately, the company isn't going to fail or anything dire like that, but this has been their moment in the sun and they dropped the ball. I heard it again and again as analysts argued veraciously with me. They said: a) international deals appeared to be many multiples at previous rate, content is king and wwe owns all of their own content and produces it year round, c) live sports/DVR-proof entertainment = big money, long-term deals. But in the end, the 50% increase from NBCU isn't the ballpark of what was expected. The loss of credibility is going to hurt WWE. I don't believe it'll be as bad in the "mainstream" world - look at the great divide in coverage between how the 667,287 number was interpreted by Wall Street (stock drop) and interpreted by the Media (well on their way to a million in just 42 days!). It's been a tough place. The WWE Stock looked hot and now it's a flop. The WWE Network looked like a huge innovative step forward and now it looks like an expensive proposition with an uncertain future. The WWE TV Deals were supposed to provide the cushion so they wouldn't have a bad year. At the same time, WWE is way too big to murdered by a single lousy year. It's controlled by the McMahon family and that's not going to change. But, with attendance trends flat (and international attendance dropping YOY for several years), I would be concerned that wrestling doesn't look hot and the fundamentals aren't looking amazing. Maybe that's too doom & gloom, but I think credibility mattered to WWE and this just demonstrates that they won't be getting advertising rates commensurate with their audience size in the near future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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