mookeighana

I wrote up a piece a few days ago (3/5/14) where I came to the conclusion that based on the facts on the ground, I figured they're going to end up sticking with NBCU and not getting the $200M: http://whatculture.com/wwe/wwes-current-15-year-stock-high-tied-domestic-tv-future.php

http://www.f4wonline.com/more/more-top-stories/96-wwe/35580-on-wrestling-2013-wwe-financials-examined-wrestlenomics-style

So, for 2013, my records had: Daniel Bryan: 13 PPVs + 88 TVs = 101 matches Antonio Cesaro: 8 PPVs + 92 TVs = 100 matches Damien Sandow: 8 PPVs + 89 TVs = 97 matches Randy Orton: 11 PPVs + 83 TVs = 94 matches Cody Rhodes: 9 PPVs + 82 TVs = 91 matches Dolph Ziggler: 8 PPVs + 75 TVs = 83 matches So, technically, Cesaro had more TV matches but DB had more PPVs matches. (13 because he technically had two matches on SummerSlam.) 2012 was: Sheamus: 11 PPVs + 89 TVs = 100 matches Daniel Bryan: 12 PPVs + 82 TVs = 94 matches Dolph Ziggler: 11 PPVs + 79 TVs = 90 matches Whereas 2011 had a lot less TV: Randy Orton: 13 PPVs + 59 TVs = 72 matches Kofi Kingston: 11 PPVs + 60 TVs = 71 matches We have to go back awhile before we start to see big numbers like 2012/2013 put up. 2000: Chris Jericho: 15 PPVs + 100 TVs = 115 matches Kurt Angle: 17 PPVs + 96 TVs = 113 matches The Rock: 14 PPVs + 97 TVs = 111 matches Chris Benoit: 14 PPVs + 96 TVs = 110 matches Christian: 13 PPVs + 94 TVs = 107 matches Edge: 13 PPVs + 93 TVs = 106 matches Matt Hardy: 13 PPVs + 93 TVs = 106 matches Jeff Hardy: 13 PPVs + 93 TVs = 106 matches Bubba Ray Dudley: 13 PPVs + 88 TVs = 101 matches Rikishi: 14 PPVs + 87 TVs = 101 matches D-Von Dudley: 13 PPVs + 87 TVs = 100 matches Scotty 2 Hotty: 8 PPVs + 91 TVs = 99 matches Crash Holly: 7 PPVs + 87 TVs = 94 matches Albert: 7 PPVs + 84 TVs = 91 matches 2001: Chris Jericho: 15 PPVs + 99 TVs = 114 matches Kurt Angle: 16 PPVs + 88 TVs = 104 matches Bubba Ray Dudley: 14 PPVs + 80 TVs = 94 matches D-Von Dudley: 14 PPVs + 80 TVs = 94 matches Jeff Hardy: 11 PPVs + 82 TVs = 93 matches Matt Hardy: 9 PPVs + 82 TVs = 91 matches

On the Rob Van Dam episode of the Jericho show, he talks through Mookie's W/L sheet (5 minute mark) http://cdn46.castfire.com/audio/522/3398/25156/2103038/2103038_2014-03-04-220938-7770-0-1-0.64k.mp3 Yeah, Jericho gave me the most unexpected cameo in awhile. Y2J was talking about the 2013 W/L records that Dave reprinted in the 2/17/14 Observer so he has fun going through and talking about who a lot (Cena) and lost a lot (Aksana) as well as speculate on exactly what type of person would assemble records like this. Between about 4:30 and 12:30 he says my name like four times. Woohoo!

Smackdown in FY2000 had 6.6 million viewers (4.7 weekly average out of 86 million households) and Raw had 6.7 million viewers (6.2 weekly average out of 78 million households). (source) I believe it was during the Eddie/Rey Custody of Dominic storyline on Smackdown when SM had more viewers than Raw but I could be mistaken. Obviously, when one is on cable and the other is on broadcast TV, that plays a major role.

Not exactly payoff information, but I was looking at the 1977 Booking Calendar for World Class and was comparing against 1977 results I did my best to read the handwriting and I guessed that we're talking gates here (since I doubt there was admissions of half a person, unless that's how Lord Littlebrook's comps get counted). If my math was right, 47 Tuesdays in Dallas averaged around $5,000 and 45 Wednesdays in Fort Worth averaged around $4,000. (Though the standard deviation was pretty high for both cities: $1,300 for Dallas and $1,100 for Ft. Worth - so there was a significant amount of variation). If I subtract the average from these cities and look at who has 4+ appearances... The guys with the highest positive "delta" were: Andre The Giant: +$1717 (4 shows) Eddie Mansfield: +$980 (4 shows) Gene Lewis: +$956 (10 shows) Lord Littlebrook: +$911 (4 shows) Skip Young: +$897 (15 shows) Vicki Williams: +$767 (4 shows) Randy Colley: +$526 (10 shows) Swede Hanson: +$491 (4 shows) Gino Hernandez: +$487 (32 shows) Reno Tuufuli: +$465 (42 shows) Harley Race: +$457 (7 shows) Tommy Seigler: +$447 (33 shows) Fritz Von Erich: +$433 (29 shows) Carlos Payne: +$310 (10 shows) Iron Sheik Farouk: +$249 (55 shows) Big John Studd: +$244 (55 shows) Bruiser Brody: +$229 (52 shows) Bull Ramos: +$223 (31 shows) The guys on the other end were... Mr. Sakurada: -$1122 (6 shows) George McQuary: -$1022 (8 shows) Denny Alberts: -$989 (5 shows) Killer Brooks: -$976 (8 shows) Rip Hawk: -$967 (7 shows) Killer Karl Krupp: -$932 (11 shows) Luis Martinez: -$912 (4 shows) Hank James: -$835 (5 shows) Cowboy Bob Ellis: -$717 (15 shows) Kevin Von Erich: -$711 (22 shows) Dan Burdick: -$685 (20 shows) Masked Marvel: -$643 (6 shows) Randy Alls: -$617 (13 shows) Les Thornton: -$568 (12 shows) Jose Lothario: -$426 (5 shows) Randy Brewer: -$395 (24 shows) Moondog Mayne: -$376 (23 shows) Ivan Putski: -$354 (17 shows) Lord Alfred Hayes: -$288 (21 shows) Black Gordman: -$286 (23 shows) There's a lot of factors that aren't being taken into account. That includes seasonal variations (though I took off the 12/26 and 12/27 shows since those two were two holidays that were way above normal), who was the champ, stipulations or specific feuds and plenty else. Just a quick & dirty test to see what it suggested. Thoughts?

3/2/09 Wrestling Observer 12/20/10 WrestlingObserver

I wrote a few pieces this past week: 2/25/2014 WhatCulture: WWE: 8 Modern PPVs That Performed Miserably 2/20/2014 WhatCulture: 10 Controversies of the WWE Network 2/18/2014 WhatCulture: WWE Raw: 16 Biggest Raw Ratings Movers / Indeedwrestling: WWE Raw Ratings Movers Individual Graphs 2/25/2014 Voices of Wrestling: WWE Network Launch Day Estimation / Indeedwrestling: WWE Network Launch Day Estimation[ 2/23/2014 F4W/WO: 2013 WWE Financials Examined Wrestlenomics-style 2/24/2014 Voices of Wrestling: WWE 2013 & PPV Breakdown[ 2/27/2014 WhatCulture: WWE Network Launch: All your Key Questions Answered 2/28/2014 Whatculture: 20 Most Prolific PPV Wrestlers Of All Time (WCW/WWF) 3/03/2014 F4W/WO: WWE Network 7 Days Later 3/05/2014 Whatculture: 14 WWE Network Risks That WWE Worries About

I'm hoping to follow this episode up with a solo podcast. I appreciate the feedback. I hope to get some idea of what would make a good topic to discuss or explore.

I've wondered if having those commercial breaks essentially "forces" matches to be certain lengths to fit into time constraints. I was looking at distribution of Raw/Smackdown/PPV match lengths today on my blog: http://indeedwrestling.blogspot.com/2014/02/bury-points-and-match-lengths.html One thing that really jumped out was how much shorter average 1 on 1 singles matches got during the Attitude Era -- it dropped from 5-7 minutes during 1993-1997 down to an average of 3-4 minutes from 1998-2001. It was really crazy. Now we're back to the 5-6 minute era. It total more than half of all matches I looked at from 1993-2013 were less than 5 minutes long.

http://www.voicesofwrestling.com/2014/02/12/wrestlenomics-radio-kayfabermetrics/ mp3: http://traffic.libsyn.com/voicesofwrestling/001.mp3 It's my return to podcasting after a long, long break. I thought it would be fun to talk about wrestling statistics with other people who are also working on similar projects. Hopefully it's something that will entertain and enlighten listeners. The audio quality was so-so (my fault) but Rich at Voices of Wrestling did a wonderful job cleaning up my mess and turning this into something presentable. Push Index Number (which we discuss in depth) is at: http://www.kayfabermetrics.com/835-2/ Honestly, I don't know whether it will be interesting to anyone else, but talking with Timmons was both therapeutic (like we say on the podcast, you can feel like you spend a lot of time in a vacuum) and educational (for me). I had seen the Kayfabermetrics Push Index Number (great name) before but I honestly didn't understand it so I really appreciate that he took the time to walk through what it all meant, and what was his basis of thinking while crafting some custom wrestling metrics. If nothing else, I hope others listen and can provide him with feedback on how to improve, use, abuse what he's done. I know I came out of the conversation with some ideas and anxious to apply the methods to some of the datasets that I've already assembled! In the much greater context, my hope is that if I start these conversations with other people who are working on wrestling stats, perhaps we'll be able to figure out a way to come together and collaborate, or at the very least interact more, on some forum or place of choice.

BTW, i posted a link with 2006-2013 WWE PPV buys (with citiations from Wrestling Observer) split worldwide/domestic on my blog back in December: http://indeedwrestling.blogspot.com/2013/12/wwe-2006-2013-ppv-numbers-and-lengthy.html

I bit the bullet and tried again to decipher WCW buyrates and WCW buys: http://indeedwrestling.blogspot.com/2014/02/deciphering-wcw-buyrates.html

I really was hoping we'd see a copy up on WWE.com full of nutty corporate language describing Mr. Jacobs' actions.

I heartily doubt it. I don't think WWE wants to mix their WWE Network infrastructure with any cable/dish operators. They don't want to split the monthly subscription fees and that they want to prove that over-the-top is the future. I can't imagine they'd mix their WWE Network over-the-top with a traditional operator at this point. If Network is going belly up, I can see them crawling back, but right now absolutely not.

Honestly, it isn't clear. He just said something very vague like "WWE is looking for $280M". We know Vince said he wanted to double or triple rights, which I could be the math that leads to 2.5 x $110M = $275M. However, in my scenarios I looked at "average $280M/yr" and "hit $280M after 5 years", the latter of which I thought was possible while the former seemed zany. Dave's take on last night's Raw review/mailbag was that it'll come down to number of bidders and that if they go past 2/15 without accepting NBCU's exclusive offer, it's not looking good for WWE to stay on NBCU. I would be shocked if Raw moves; I could see Smackdown flipping to another entity. However, I only have baseless conjecture to go off of, so really the sky's the limit for what may and will and should and won't and could happen.

I don't think so. I've heard him bury the WWE Hall of Fame as a joke (or at least as something that really has no credible line) on numerous audio shows referencing Dudley as a prime reason why one shouldn't take it any more serious than the "Hall of Guys that WWE choses that year for whatever reason makes sense to them at that moment." But at the same time, he knows they're not going to "dump" out people, and still thought bringing in guys like Sammartino was a big deal and gives some credibility that they're building their own version of history though it's almost entirely built on the idea of "who fans of today still know?".

Two things to add to this (hope it's okay I'm bumping an old thread since we're coming up on the 2/15 deadline): WWE has signed a new 5-year television deal to continue their relationship with the "UK pay TV giant" BSkyB. Recent WWE TV Rights Coverage: Hollywood Report: "WWE, BSkyB Extend U.K. TV Deal" Business Wire Press Release (WSJ/Yahoo): "BSkyB Secures WWE for Five More Years" Wrestling Observer: "WWE signs new TV deal with BSkyB in U.K." NY Post: "NBCUniversal, to keep WWE, mulls Hall of Fame" Some of the important nuggets of information to consider: As Dave Meltzer noted in his report, "timing is everything". Right now Live Sports are receiving record renewal rates, especially with combined with long term exclusivity. Additionally, a new competitor in the marketplace (BT Sports) likely drove up the bidding before WWE renewed with their longtime partner. This represents a significant increase for WWE. In fact, the Hollywood Report storysuggested that, "value is believed to be about three times that of the previous five-year agreement". That's a really key figure because that's in the range of what Vince McMahon has been promising shareholders during the monthly conference calls. Unlike the previous deal (signed in late 2009 just months before it started in January 2010), this renewal moved all 12 PPVs to Sky Box Office (essentially to a pay-per-view channel akin to the setup in the US). Previously, some PPVs aired as "special events" for free on Sky. It's believed that this move would pave the way for the subscription over-the-top WWE Network to be available in the UK with the monthly PPV programming being broadcast there. This brings up the question of what will WWE be doing with the current domestic negotiations with NBCUniversal. (I recommend re-reading some the previous coverage on this blog with last month's "Can we predict WWE TV Rights Fees for 2015?") The latest rumor I've heard is that WWE is looking for about "$280M" in their negotiations (2/3/14 Wrestling Observer). What isn't clear is the length of the deal or how they'd want to structure that money. However, I would submit the following graph: Today, Domestic TV Rights are clipping around at about 10% growth year-over-year. (2013 is estimated based on 3 quarters of information and 2014 is completely projected.) Keep in mind that Total Divas! on E! has been a lucrative program and it's questionable whether that project would continue indefinitely. Assuming a similar deal to BSkyB at 5 years (which is plausible), if WWE wanted to hit $280M by the end of the contract (which begins in the end of 2014), that would represent about a 19% growth year-over-year (twice as high). If they wanted to average $280M over the five years, that would average about 31% growth year-over-year. While those are hefty numbers, considering the high values being thrown for other sports packages, it's possible they'd go for it. It would lock up WWE before the exclusive negotiation period and it would continue the relationship that WWE has with the company. And it's in the range of the change (at least in terms of year-over-year growth) that would be in line with what happened in the BSkyB negotiation -- triple where they are today. -Chris Harrington (@mookieghana) Addendum: 1/31/2014 We do know from WWE's annual reports: WWE revenue details Jan-Dec 2012: $34,001,000 (UK); total Europe/Middle East/Africa: $70,720,000; int'l TV rights = $50.6M; int'l Live Events = $31.6M Jan-Dec 2011: $33,178,000 (UK); total Europe/Middle East/Africa: $76,165,000; int'l TV rights = $51.2M; int'l Live Events = $39.8M Jan-Dec 2010: $33,932,000 (UK); total Europe/Middle East/Africa: $80,263,000; int'l TV rights = $45.4M; int'l Live Events = $39.9M Jan-Dec 2009: $36,516,000 (UK); total Europe/Middle East/Africa: $82,508,000; int'l TV rights = $39.1M; int'l Live Events = $41.0M Jan-Dec 2008: $47,301,000 (UK); int'l TV rights = $37.2M; int'l Live Events = $41.7M Jan-Dec 2007: $45,068,000 (UK); int'l TV rights = $32.8M; int'l Live Events = $37.4M (8 month transition period) May-Dec 2006: $21,812,000 (UK); int'l TV rights = $20.7M; int'l Live Events = $15.7M May 05-Apr 06: $34,788,000 (UK); int'l TV rights = $28.5M; int'l Live Events = $28.3M For the purposes of these numbers, int'l is basically "not US or Canada or PR" since they count that with "North America" but they do break out Mexico as int'l (as part of Latin America). They've begun splitting out UK revenues since it's their "largest international market". I tried to see if I could figure out what UK TV Rights fees were, but without spending more time drilling into counting tours and whatnot, I wasn't confident in what I could extract from the numbers above. My take on BSkyB was that putting all the PPVs on Sky Box Office meant that WWE Network could show them because that sounds like a similar arrangement to what WWE does in the US, but perhaps I'm misunderstanding that. If nothing else, it seems like surprising that Sky would triple their rates (Hollywood reporter) without getting PPV exclusivity, but at this phase I think WWE is playing from a position of strength. Latest NY Post Article: WWE/NBCU May Split Up. There's the cryptic sentence, "It’s not clear where the price tag stands, but reports have suggested the last deal was priced at $140 million, and the WWE had been looking for a leap up that gives it a similar premium accorded to sports rights." I'm not clear on what that $140M represents (could that include some Digital Media money for Hulu rights?) because we know Domestic TV Rights is less than $110M. A few days ago I spoke with an investment banker who tracks media stocks. (He reached out to me after reading some of my blogs.) His take was that WWE (based on advertising/cpms) was worth no more than 145 million to NBCU, especially since WWE viewers never stick around to watch other shows (i.e. little/no halo effect). (I tried to explain how WWE fed Ultimate Fighter back in the Spike days.) I mentioned the $280M number that Dave wrote about in the observer and the analyst I spoke with was surprised and quite skeptical that WWE would get near those numbers. He believed that if WWE/NBCU passes the exclusive negotiation period without an announcement it's a bad sign for WWE. Personally, I still think WWE will end up with WWE on NBCU (similar to not jumping ships in the UK) but I have to admit that $140M would majorly underperform what Vince has promised investors. (that's up about 35M, probably more since the 106M current deal includes a bunch of total divas money).

I'm curious (although probably not enough to watch the show) to see how they edit it. Obviously you cut the fall... do you keep any of the updates from Ross? Just an interesting question that we'll get to see the answer to. The fall didn't air anywhere. I actually know someone (who's not a crackpot) who says an honest to God legit fan-shot version on an early, low quality digital camera was on early P2P services like Hotline and shock sites like Ogrish, but I'm not sure I believe him just because the odds of it not getting attention on wrestling sites is nil. Yeah. I'm guessing if anything it'll turn out to be footage from some crazy Japanese garbage fed where someone took a crazy bump from scaffolding to the ring. Or, like a lot of random files on P2P services back then, the video never worked so it was seeded and leeched plenty without anyone actually watching the thing.

I remember downloading this off DVDVR years ago and watching it. I loved it. I love a crazy brawl and the intensity here was so much fun. Terrific match and really makes you wonder/want to see more Masanobu Kurisu & Dragon Master.

Yeah. F4W has been lacking personality for awhile. I remember when Bryan used to have those year-end issues about WCW and I thought the jokes were pretty funny. Now, it just feel is Alan & Steve Sims writing international reports, some Vinny V rehash (and not even the fun stuff like when he used to review Candice Michelle flicks and whatnot) and very little exciting - especially because by the time it comes out, it feel likes everything is three days old. And that's the problem - things slipped to the point that when there was good stuff, I often missed it because F4W did become "can miss" material. I've written a few articles for Bryan over the years which he's published (and I greatly appreciate it) but sometimes so many weeks elapsed between when I wrote the piece and when it went up, that it got a little frustrating. (I thought my WWE Network viability piece was pretty decent, except that it took so many weeks between when I wrote it and when Bryan published it, Dave had already changed the landscape considerably when he confirmed that they were going over-the-top. Then the piece ran and there was exactly ZERO comments on it. When that happens to you, you can't help but selfishly feel like you're working in a vacuum.) Hopefully with a new player in the mix, Bix can either get the focus to be more larger-piece, bigger-scope stuff (like looking at the history of such-and-such) or more up-to-date pieces. Either way, adding David to the newsletter is good for keeping things fresh and generating some excitement. Congratulations!

I did post a Cornucopia of CM Punk in WWE Stats on my blog. I think the most important part is where I point out that he never got to wrestle Chuck Palumbo, Rene Dupree or Manu on PPV.

I threw this question on twitter, but I'll repeat it here for a larger audience (and perhaps some discussion): Assuming that Punk walks away now and stays out until WON HOF balloting time, does this affect his chances of getting in? I have to believe that it may hurt him, at least on the first ballot. The idea that a 35-year old who had a significant position in the largest pro-wrestling company in the world decided to leave could rub some (perhaps older wrestler) the wrong way. Then again maybe they love standing up to Vince. I don't know. I'm reviewing his career via match statistics from CageMatch and I am struck at how he essentially got to work with so many legends and top people along with so many great workers in the past 15 years. On paper, it's a pretty satisfying career and certainly impressive. No doubt he's hurt and burnt out. I'd also suggest that he's also been quite withdrawn from the rest of the locker room for awhile now.

It's a roundabout way of getting there, but I made the point in my blog post today that I believe PPV quality won't drastically suffer just because "PPVs" are now on the WWE Network and TV is the priority. Secondarily, if you're interested in Meltzer Snowflakes 1985-2013 so you can find some lost PPV gems to watch on 2/24, check out the data dump I posted.

What's ironic is that in the call they basically said that if they got lots and lots of subscribers (as in the 1-2 million range), they would work harder on bringing more content online. I guess my take on this has always been that while hardcore fans (and lapsed fans) really enjoy the old content, WWE's experiment with Classics of Demand slash WWE 24/7 only netted a few hundred thousand subscribers at the peak. (Putting aside that this is a network with lots of on-demand content and that was a limited set of VOD programming rotating monthly). They want to create a service that generates a million+ domestic subscribers. The only lever they found in their arsenal was translating the PPV product from an expensive monthly proposition to a economized subscription. They figure with bundling in Wrestlemania they can do that. That's their gamble. It's true that they're not going to be stubbornly resisting attempts for people to give them money, but they're also pretty convinced that the model is all about current PPVs (and past PPVs), so that's their focus. For better or worse, WWE has decided that modern Raw/Smackdown/Main Event/NXT and PPVs are their focus. I too hope that we'll get more archival content, but I am at peace with the process.