Little questions thread

[jdw]

It wasn't an "oil crisis", which is when prices shoot upward. It was an "oil glut", which causes prices to drop.

 

Much of US production was expensive to produce relative to OPEC crude. It was worthwhile to extract when crude prices where high (i.e. allowing extraction and production to be profitable), and it wasn't worthwhile to extract when crude prices dropped too low (i.e. made it unprofitable). The known cheap & easy crude in most of the US had be extracted by that point, with the exception of places like Alaska. Production in Texas and Louisiana went to shit: it just wasn't profitable to chase it, as did exploration.

 

In turn, places that had a boom because of the oil crisis of the 70s (OPEC sending the price of crude through the roof), had massive economic busts. TX, LA... etc.

 

Probably can google something on it. It was in the news at the time, but it also sticks in my mind because my father worked for Texaco so I got years of oil business stuff being talked about by him.

 

John

[Matt D]

Didn't I ask this on page one?

[JerryvonKramer]

Didn't I ask this on page one?

I thought I remembered you asking about it, and I even did a search for "mega-trend" but it didn't bring this thread up. Didn't think of looking at page 1.

 

It wasn't an "oil crisis", which is when prices shoot upward. It was an "oil glut", which causes prices to drop.

 

Much of US production was expensive to produce relative to OPEC crude. It was worthwhile to extract when crude prices where high (i.e. allowing extraction and production to be profitable), and it wasn't worthwhile to extract when crude prices dropped too low (i.e. made it unprofitable). The known cheap & easy crude in most of the US had be extracted by that point, with the exception of places like Alaska. Production in Texas and Louisiana went to shit: it just wasn't profitable to chase it, as did exploration.

 

In turn, places that had a boom because of the oil crisis of the 70s (OPEC sending the price of crude through the roof), had massive economic busts. TX, LA... etc.

 

Probably can google something on it. It was in the news at the time, but it also sticks in my mind because my father worked for Texaco so I got years of oil business stuff being talked about by him.

 

John

 

Yeah I'm reading about it now. Interesting. Have they since gone back to pre-glut levels of production? I'm just trying to understand how this happened then and I'm currently paying over £1.40 per LITRE here (about 4.5 litres to a gallon)

[jdw]

As far as it's impact on wrestling and entertainment... hard to say. Take the movie business in the Great Recession. It didn't completely go in the tank:

 

2005 - $8.8B

2006 - $9.2B

2007 - $9.7B

2008 - $9.6B

2009 - $10.6B

2010 - $10.6B

2011 - $10.2B

2012 - $10.8B

 

Growth stopped in 2008, but bounced back in 2009. Its been flat since then, but it was flat in 2003-06. Entertainment money often continues to be spent in tough economic times.

 

Watts was also hurt by JYD leaving, and the MX vs Watts and MX vs R'n'R running their course by the end of 1984. Economics were a part of it, but an overblown one by Watts and Ross. Promoters and people in the business always want to blame something other than the product. Often it's the product.

 

Note: I wouldn't blame Watts as much on the "product" as say Russo and Heyman and Steph-Trip. Watts was more in the "shit happens" zone, as JYD probably wouldn't have left Mid South for years if Vince didn't go national. The promotion would have had ups and downs, but they also would have had programs with JYD that caught fire. Some bad luck there, but Vince made bad luck for a lot of people.

 

John

[jdw]

Yeah I'm reading about it now. Interesting. Have they since gone back to pre-glut levels of production? I'm just trying to understand how this happened then and I'm currently paying over £1.40 per LITRE here (about 4.5 litres to a gallon)

Crude prices are vastly higher now than they were in the mid-80s.

 

On the other hand, fracking and the natural gas boom (i.e. cheap natural gas costs) have massively impacted coal production and one would suspect oil, though I follow oil production far less than years ago.

[rvd356]

Watts was arguing that pretty much everything ground to a halt down there. Rock tours cancelled. Is he simply making this up?

Can someone tell me in semi detail why Tenryu left AJPW?

 

I am doing my monthly watch of Tenryu/Jumbo 6/1/89(got to be in my top 10 matches of all time) & was JW.

[JerryvonKramer]

What interests me John is that by all accounts -- and common consensus here and elsewhere -- MidSouth TV in 1985 is some of the best wrestling TV ever made. Watts had a very very strong product, so logically you have to start looking at outside factors.

 

In this interview he talks about the changing demographic. A constant theme here is that when he feels things aren't going well, he asks Jerry Jarrett to come in and give an assessment of what he thinks is going wrong. Around 83-4, Jarrett pointed out to him that there are no girls in the audience. Ergo, he brings in the RnRs and the Midnights. Which attracts younger fans. I really believe Watts is one of the smarter promoters from that era.

 

All of which means I'm inclined to believe his "mega-trend" oil glut excuse. But what happened to World Class in the same timeframe?

[jdw]

What interests me John is that by all accounts -- and common consensus here and elsewhere -- MidSouth TV in 1985 is some of the best wrestling TV ever made. Watts had a very very strong product, so logically you have to start looking at outside factors.

Watts thinks it was strong product.

 

That doesn't mean it was strong product to the ticket buying fans.

 

WWF @ St. Louis, MO - Kiel Auditorium - August 10, 1984

Television taping - featured Vince McMahon on commentary:

Georgia Championship Wrestling - 8/18/84: The Junkyard Dog pinned Max Blue at 4:17 with the powerslam (JYD's debut)

 

The Midnights also left for Texas at the end of 1984.

 

What I'm trying to say, is that you could put on the best "product" out there to one type of fan's viewpoint (say 1989 Flair-Steamboat), but it might not be the "product" that certain other fans like (say 1989 Hogan-Savage which kicked the living fuck out of Flair-Steamboat at the box office).

 

So Watts thinking he put out great product in 1985 and 1986, and a bunch of us sitting around in a circle getting all worked up about the Mid South / UWF tv of those years, doesn't mean jack shit if it really wasn't working up the fans to go out and buy tickets like they did for JYD and those two major 1984 MX feuds.

 

Read the Cornette MX scrapbook. He's already pointing out Super Dome business being down after JYD left, even with "loaded up" cards.

 

Yeah, Watts is compelling. So is Russo in his shoots to Russo Fans who either don't know any better or think VinnyRu's shit don't stink.

[jdw]

Can someone tell me in semi detail why Tenryu left AJPW?

 

I am doing my monthly watch of Tenryu/Jumbo 6/1/89(got to be in my top 10 matches of all time) & was JW.

Because a rich person offered him a ton of money to run his own promotion. That turned out to be SWS. Tenryu got a bunch of people to jump from AJPW and NJPW. The promotion bombed, then split into WAR and some other promotion whose name I can't remember. WAR bombed as well as a stand alone promotion.

[JerryvonKramer]

The more important question is the World Class one though. If they suffered a parallel slump, then that would lend some weight to the oil excuse. They didn't lose Kerry until 1990, so it's almost a perfect comparison point. (Watts lost his top draw, Fritz didn't -- and we even get the period when Kerry was out after the accident)

 

I mean if the numbers Watts was talking about are in any way accurate and the oil mega-trend didn't affect business in the way he claims, that means JYD is a top 5 US draw for the 80s since we're effectively attributing a slump from $100k gates down to $20k gates almost entirely because of his absence.

 

Does this also mean that Duggan vs. DiBiase and Murdoch vs. DiBiase didn't draw?

 

Sorry if this is old ground to some of you.

[Matt D]

Your buddy Millionaire Ted says that Dundee hotshot the territory and killed it off

[sek69]

Loss said it best, the oil situation put a dent in their business but it's something they could have bounced back from had they given the fans something compelling.

[rvd356]

Can someone tell me in semi detail why Tenryu left AJPW?

 

I am doing my monthly watch of Tenryu/Jumbo 6/1/89(got to be in my top 10 matches of all time) & was JW.

Because a rich person offered him a ton of money to run his own promotion. That turned out to be SWS. Tenryu got a bunch of people to jump from AJPW and NJPW. The promotion bombed, then split into WAR and some other promotion whose name I can't remember. WAR bombed as well as a stand alone promotion.

 

Oh okay. I thought there was some kind of personal issue with Baba's wife or something I heard somewhere. Sorry for my ignorance. *6/8/89 my bad.

[JerryvonKramer]

Loss said it best, the oil situation put a dent in their business but it's something they could have bounced back from had they given the fans something compelling.

When did business really drop off for him though? Was it 85 or 86 or even later?

 

If it was 85, are we saying the Duggan-DiBiase feud wasn't compelling? Or the famous Flair-DiBiase match where Murdoch brainbusters Ted on the floor? Isn't that stuff compelling? Didn't the fans go wild for it?

[JerryvonKramer]

I'm watching the Terry Taylor Guest Booker now, and according to him the UWF was doing good business even in 87. He keeps saying they got 9,000 or 10,000 people at the Omni. According to him, the main thing that was sending Watts under was that he over extended and the costs were spiraling out of control. The distances between towns was too great, he also had "political costs" with the different athletic commissions.

 

Taylor says -- and I quote -- "We were drawing best business ever when the oil crisis was at its worst ... we were roaring, people were coming to watch".

 

I'm not saying I believe this, but it's a fourth explanation on the table now:

 

1. Oil mega-trend (Watts)

2. JYD left so gates were down and / or the product wasn't what people wanted to see anymore (jdw and Loss)

3. Dundee hotshotted the territory (DiBiase)

4. Costs were out of control (Taylor)

 

This sort of condundrum won't be new to any history majors among you, but in the next week or so I'm going to see if I can have a shot at determining which one is closest to being the truth by looking at attendance figures and other things.

 

It's quite an interesting one.

[sek69]

It should be noted the theory Watts pushes is the one that absolves him of any blame.

[goodhelmet]

I can only speak for one town but the UWF was on TV every Saturday morning from 1986-1987. They ran a house show in San Antonio in January of 1987. 300 people showed up. This was headlined by Ted vs. OMG and a Freebirds Six Man. Terry Taylor was there because I got his autograph.

 

ALso, jdw, my uncle lives in Odessa and when I talked to him last, he said the oil town is booming. The big crisis in Odessa is putting 200,000 people in a city built for 100,000 so all of the oil workers are living in hotels pushing up the price of the shit bag hotels they have in Odessa.

[jdw]

I'm starting to understand where Jerry gets most of his theories that don't match reality and make him ponder Important Questions:

 

He watches way too many Wrestling Shoot Interviews.

 

I said this in an earlier thread: They're wrestlers, they lie and distort and misremember and put themselves over. They also tend to be more than a bit ignorant as well when it comes to the world outside their own small circle of knowledge (pro wrestling), and live in that bubble.

 

I don't want to say they're useless... but they're generally wastes of time to use for Historical Information. I mean... I fully expect you to be dragging over Larry Z's history of the WWF and AWA at some point, and us having to bang our heads against the wall trying to correct your latest theories.

 

John

[jdw]

PS: On World Class...

 

It went to shit because:

 

* Von Erichs kept dropping dead and/or getting maimed while new Von Erichs sucked

* they were unable and unwilling to get over strongly non-Von Erich faces

* they weren't able to get another batch of heels over as strongly as the Freebirds

* Gino & Adams weren't a bad next batch of heels, even if they weren't quite as hot as the Birds...

* hey look... Gino cokes himself to death

* split from NWA took away being able to bring in Flair to draw

* lots and lots and lots of drugs

 

In the end, it was the product.

[Loss]

I loved Mid South/UWF until the bitter end. But they kept repeating ideas to diminishing returns, like Watts coming out of retirement, and while they probably did have the best booked show in the country and a roster I really enjoyed, the wrestlers they pushed on top weren't really considered stars at the same level of the top talent in other promotions that had TV in most of his markets.

 

The game was changing in a way where regional promoters weren't going to be able to thrive. Watts knew this, but he tried expansion without any type of national TV coverage, and with no real breakout star. I don't think most of the issues were in his control, but blaming it all on the oil crisis is too easy an answer.

[JerryvonKramer]

jdw, you have a habit of writing as if the Scrolls of History are written, you've got access to them, and all the answers have already been established.

 

I don't think the answer to this is as simple as you are making out. I don't believe that Terry Taylor would make out business was great for them if he didn't remember (or thinks he remembers) the arenas being full. What does he have to gain by saying that 20 years later? I don't believe DiBiase pointing to hotshotting is a complete "waste of time".

 

Right, they are wrestlers, not historians. But their accounts of events should be taken into a broader consideration. Actual historians look at more than just hard data to draw conclusions.

 

Did I advance a "theory" here? If I did, I must have missed it myself. But if everyone took the same view of history that you do, there'd only need to be one account of any given event written.

 

Anyway, there's a brick wall, feel free to knock yourself out on it.

[Bix]

They did have a successful Omni show (in large part due to strong local promotion by Deep South as a partner), right as JCP was gonna buy Watts out, but business was awful just about everywhere else.

[JerryvonKramer]

Anyone know where we can get MidSouth / UWF attendance figures? They did the same towns and venues time and again: Tulsa, New Orleans, Houston, OKC. Should be very easy to see a significant drop off in gates if the numbers are there. That would effectively eliminate Taylor's version of events, leaving the other three possibilities.

 

I would also be interested to see when exactly the numbers drop off (assuming they do). Is it a sudden drop after JYD goes? Is it a gradual decline? Does it start in 85, 86 or 87? If anyone just knows this stuff, would be cool to know.

 

EDIT: Came across this:

 

http://www.infinitecore.ca/superstar/index...8396&page=0

 

Same sorts of positions being put forward. Oil definitely being put forward as a contributing factor. Mid-late 86 as the time things started to fall off.

 

RE-EDIT: I'd encourage those of you interested, to read the Richard Sullivan piece and then the Kayfabe Memories board reaction. Sullivan gets a lot of criticism for not understanding the difference between sports fans and wrestling fans in the area. There's a core of guys who reject his theory that there's no correlation between the oil glut and business because it is based largely on a dis-analogy (fallacy 101). I think that this shows, if nothing else, that jdw is largely unjustified for writing that rather pompous post above; if anything is clear about this question it's that there are multiple explanations in play for why the territory failed in the end.

[jdw]

jdw, you have a habit of writing as if the Scrolls of History are written, you've got access to them, and all the answers have already been established.

No, I write as someone who lived through that promotion going in the shitter, then two decades ago read all the WONs from the time period covering the promotion going in the shitter.

 

 

I don't think the answer to this is as simple as you are making out.

I can't help it that you're wrong. People are trying to point it out, not just me... but you keep up with it.

 

 

I don't believe that Terry Taylor would make out business was great for them if he didn't remember (or thinks he remembers) the arenas being full.

Terry's wrong.

 

 

What does he have to gain by saying that 20 years later?

Why do people lie? Who know. We just passed the 10th anniversary of the start of the Iraq War, and there was a full court press of people still defending that fucking catastrophic disaster. Why? It's part of their legacy. They've been telling the lies so long they believe them. They can't admit they're wrong. They bought the bullshit. They're fucking stupid. Who knows... pick one of them, because they're wrong.

 

 

I don't believe DiBiase pointing to hotshotting is a complete "waste of time".

Goddamn... you're citing multiple shoots of pro wrestler who lie and misremember things.

 

Seriously, I can't wait for you to get your hands on Larry Z's and drag it over here with some of your "Why would Larry lie about this?" nonsense. KHawk and my heads are going to fucking explode.

 

 

Right, they are wrestlers, not historians. But their accounts of events should be taken into a broader consideration.

Jerry: I've had wrestlers try to lie right in my face as I've stood next to Meltzer and Keller, a couple of guys that you'd think they'd try not to lie to because they were tacitly friendly with them. Some of them were just stupid, silly things that you just shook your head over why they were bothering. Some were over hyping shit.

 

I don't really take accounts of wrestlers into much broader considerations.

 

Actual historians look at more than just hard data to draw conclusions.

History degree. I'll happily draw my own historical conclusions, Jerry.

 

 

But if everyone took the same view of history that you do, there'd only need to be one account of any given event written.

Actually, with both Mid South and Texas, I and other people rolled out a number of factors that impacted those companies going to shit. We've indicated that the economy had a small impact.

 

You are buying Watts' bullshit, which he's been rolling out for 20+ years to absolve himself of blame, that the Oil Glut was fully responsible for killing his great business.

 

You happen to be wrong on that, as is Bill. If you want to believe the wrestlers on that, by all means go for it. We can not stop you from believing what you want to. We can only try to correct the record so that other people stopping by a thread like this don't get the wrong idea of history and believe the nonsense you're rolling out.

 

John

[jdw]

They did have a successful Omni show (in large part due to strong local promotion by Deep South as a partner), right as JCP was gonna buy Watts out, but business was awful just about everywhere else.

And it also was A Show, as opposed to 6 months of doing strong Omni business.

 

JCP did a strong show in Los Angeles. They had issues sustaining it. Which is a contrast to their business in Philly and Baltimore, where they had good attendance for a long period, even if it was a bit up and down at times.