Linda McMahon for Senate catch-all thread

[Ditch]

Hm. Maybe this isn't a done deal after all:

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/20...nthal-plummets/

[jdw]

It's Ras, which means it's wise to wait until polling from other firms comes out.

 

John

[jdw]

That said, the Dems do need to get their own polling out to get a strong pulse. Like I said above, the Dems have a deep bench and if Blume is toast, they need to move fast by the end of next week.

 

I'm not sold Linda is the one who can take advantage of it. After all, ponder Vince's age, and his strong record of service in Nam.

 

John

[Ditch]

Charlie Cook now rating the race a toss-up. I'm sure Blumenthal will still have a lead in subsequent polls but even if it's 10 or 12 points, that's not a sure thing this far out. If the other polls are still around 20 points, or if they swing to 20 points in a couple weeks, then I'd be more inclined to think the storm will pass.

[kjh]

I agree with John that Linda is unlikely to be a candidate who could fully capitalize on this blunder. The Democrats have largely ignored Linda up to this point. There are plenty of skeletons in her family closet for them to expose, once they put their minds to it. Linda is also a political novice, she's very likely to make a serious gaffe herself once the media start probing her more.

[kjh]

After all, ponder Vince's age, and his strong record of service in Nam.

It looks like Irv Muchnick is going to take that angle, as he's got a story upcoming on Friday at BeyondChron entitled ‘Connecticut Senate Race Serves Up a Trio of Vietnam War Sanctimony’.

[jdw]

Blume story took an interesting turn:

 

The flaws in the NYT Blumenthal story

 

Don't think Blume comes out of it clean as a whistle, but quite a bit worse with a pair of heels to work against: Linda and the NYT. I think for his target voters who might be on the fence after the initial break of the story, those aren't bad heels to be working against.

 

John

[kjh]

It's one big happy family as the McMahons celebrate Linda's win at the Republican State Convention in Hartford, Connecticut

[Ditch]

Looks like Simmons is going to tap out. Linda vs Blum.

[jdw]

Good news for the Dems.

 

Joh

[Ditch]

New poll has Blum +25, and unlike other challengers in this cycle Linda has already had a ton of ads, meaning she can't count on a bunch of points based on people who've never heard of her. Only 10% undecided. As I said last week, Linda needed to be showing and holding big gains across all polls, and it looks like she isn't.

[Al]

How tough is it historically for a republican to win a senate seat in Connecticut?

[Ditch]

This guy pulled it off:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prescott_Bush

[jdw]

How tough is it historically for a republican to win a senate seat in Connecticut?

Dodd (D): 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004

 

Smallest margin: 56.34% vs 42.91% in 1980

 

Lieberman (D): 1988, 1994, 2000

 

Won a tight 49.76% vs 49.04% race against Weicker (the incumbent) in 1988.

 

Lieberman (I): 2006

 

Won because the GOP threw their support behind him (Schlesinger drew less than 10%).

 

Weicker ® won in 1970, 1976, 1982. That was a different era as their were quite a few "moderate" and "liberal" Republicans in the Northeast. They've largely been purged from the party over the past 20 years, with Collins and Snowe among the few remaining. Frankly they aren't really liberal nor very moderate except relative to anything other than the extreme winginess that the GOP has become.

 

It's worth noting that a Dem hasn't won the Gov's office since 1986.

 

Sometimes the run in offices like Senator are as much about the candidate than they are off the party. Incumbents tend to get re-elected and/or survive tough times. The Govs office have more turnover, often due to term limits (which isn't the case in CT), so they give a little clearer indication on a state's willingness to elect people from each party.

 

People think CA is Liberal Central and it's impossible for the GOP to win there. My lifetime:

 

1966 Reagan ®

1970 Reagan ®

1974 Brown (D)

1978 Brown (D)

1982 Duke ®

1986 Duke ®

1990 Wilson ®

1994 Wilson ®

1998 Gray (D)

2002 Gray (D)

2003 Arnold ®

2006 Arnold ®

 

Brown wouldn't have won in 1974 if Ronnie wanted to run for re-election. Instead, Ronnie didn't and focused on running for President in 1976.

 

Wilson gave up a Senate seat that wouldn't expire until 1994. He almost certainly would have been relected then, and held the office at least until 2000, and quite possibly held it again if he ran that year. In fact, it's kind of hard to find a point at which he would have lost the seat before 2006 which was something of a wave election for the Dems.

 

Instead, he beat DiFi in 1990 for the Gov's job, and DiFi turned around and won Pete's old Senate seat and turned into an institution there.

 

In Boxer's case, there have been times where she looked on the ropes, but the GOP has run a string of crappy candidates at her.

 

On a statewide office level, California isn't as "dirty fucking hippy liberal" as folks outside of Cali would belive.

 

CT has a similar streak, as seen in the Gov's office. It's just that Dodd was unbeatable until the banking scandals, and Lieb wasn't beatable until he turned into a neocon.

 

John

[Al]

Thanks for that John. I studied political science in college so I actually find it quite interesting.

[Ditch]

Lieb wasn't beatable until he turned into a neocon.

Joementum says "I can make JDW hate me even more!"

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/...l#ixzz0p9IRJDTC

"Joe Lieberman open to backing Linda McMahon"

[jdw]

Thanks for that John. I studied political science in college so I actually find it quite interesting.

I was history & poli sci with a second major in recreactional destructive behavior... so I trashed much of what I learned. "That brain was in no condition to retain things long term."

 

But the Cali stuff sticks in my head since the strange GOP-Dem stuff here has been going on all my life, while Wiki has real good resources to look stuff up these days and I've spent way too much time in the past decade looking up stuff like that as we worked towards 2006 & 2008.

 

John

[jdw]

Lieb wasn't beatable until he turned into a neocon.

Joementum says "I can make JDW hate me even more!"

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/...l#ixzz0p9IRJDTC

"Joe Lieberman open to backing Linda McMahon"

 

Joe is sticking his finger in the air to figure out what will help him in 2012:

 

He knows he's getting 0 Dem support in 2012 other than perhaps the Establishment, and he sees how that helped Specter.

 

He worried that his prior Indy method won't work this time: the GOP might just field a teabagger who sucks up the GOP vote rather than have it sit under 10%. That would kill him off.

 

So he's going to see if Linda gets traction and has a chance of winning in November. If she does and the GOP are close to taking the Senate, you could see Lying Lieb (and possibly Ben Nelson) jump to the GOP if they think it helps them for 2012.

 

I think _all_ paths lead to Lieb losing. Even if he jumps and the GOP Establishment circles around him, a tea bagger will run and likely knock Lieb off. If he goes Indy, Lieb and a teabagger will split the GOP vote, probably not get a ton of Indy votes (they hate Lieb too), and the Dem nominee will get almost all of the Dem vote and win the seat.

 

Joe's a rather delusional and egocentric person, so I don't think he's quite seen that he's screwed. He's gotten away with so much shit over the years that he probably think's he'll fake his way to re-election. One of the more enjoyable things of 2012 will be seeing him crash and burn. One of the less enjoyable things will be watching how vindicative he gets with his votes ones he sees he's toast.

 

John

[Ditch]

I think he'll pretty much have an '06 repeat: hard primary that he's likely to lose, 3-way election where the Republican is an afterthought. Will things like voting for the healthcare bill do harm or good to his awkward '06 coalition. Will be a fun as hell race to watch.

[Bix]

If I had a shot at being the first Jewish Vice President of the United States and my then-party thought that an entertainment company might have blown the close election for me by telling its TV viewers the night before the election that I was out to destroy said company's product, I wouldn't endorse the company's ex-CEO in a senate race.

 

But Lieberman's kinda insane.

[Boondocks Kernoodle]

Did the party really believe WWF was to blame for Gore's loss, or was that just a Keller theory?

 

I suppose the totals in Florida were close enough that any number of factors could have swung the election one way or the other, including Lawler's comments.

[Bix]

Dave Meltzer swears that he's talking to relatively high ranking members of the Democratic party who were infuriated by it and thought it was possible given how close Florida was.

[jdw]

I think he'll pretty much have an '06 repeat: hard primary that he's likely to lose, 3-way election where the Republican is an afterthought. Will things like voting for the healthcare bill do harm or good to his awkward '06 coalition. Will be a fun as hell race to watch.

Won't happen. The GOP will run a real candidate this time. Frankly they don't have much control over that anymore, as we've seen in a lot of states or districts. They'll try to win the seat, and hope that Lieb bleeds the Dems.

 

Which won't happen. Dems in the state don't trust him. The Indies don't trust him. The GOP in the state are going hardcore teabagger, and they don't care for "moderates" like Lieb. In a three-way he's draw 10% at most. And likely a 10% that won't hurt the Dem. He's toast: the state has been waiting to kill him off since 2007 when he started upping his lies.

 

John

[jdw]

Dave Meltzer swears that he's talking to relatively high ranking members of the Democratic party who were infuriated by it and thought it was possible given how close Florida was.

High ranking Dems were wrong on 2000 left and right. As they were in 2002 and 2004. Same jackasses who said that the Dems needed to run strong in the deep south in 2006 and 2008. Dumb fucks, and if Dave is actually beliving anything they had to say about 2000, he's naive.

 

John

[Loss]

I've always wondered how Dave cultivates sources outside of wrestling, like people in the cable industry and in politics.