Observer HOF prediction/ballot question thread

[hammerva]

I don't understand how "historians" consider Brock #2 while "former wrestlers" consider Brock #29. Maybe I am being narrow minded but who makes up the Historian section to begin with. I would think Bill Apter is a "reporter". Most of the people we consider historians are former managers, wrestlers, broadcasters. Are they considered old bookers "historians"

 

To me Nakamura going to the HOF would be like a Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith SR going to the pro football HOF as soon as they retired assuming there was no retirement rules. Yeah they are probably HOF worthy but not jump ahead of the line worthy.

[Childs]

 

Think we all had a feeling Nak, Perro Jr, and Brock would get in, but it's still disappointing as hell especially on the lucha side. What's the deal with Danielson though? With his recent success in WWE, becoming a star there and then the resume in-ring he's compiled over the years, I don't understand how he wouldn't get in over a Nakamura. That is one I would really need explained to me. Obviously the boom in NJPW's popularity gave Nak a better chance, but I would think Danielson's WWE success would take him over the top.

 

Nakamura is puzzling. It's weird to see all those people voting in Japan for him but not Akiyama or Taue.

 

The lucha contingent got a small victory as the numbers of Villano III are some sort of a miracle (I was expecting him to drop off forever) and him, Misioneros and Cien Caras would have all probably been in if Aguayo hadn't had such huge support from people that probably only voted for him. It's possible that some or all of them will get in next year (it all will depend of Mistico's support).

 

 

It's funny, as a first reaction, I didn't even think about Nak in relation to Taue and Akiyama. But yeah, what in the hell argument would he have over either one of them? As a worker or as a key player on big shows?

[Childs]

To me Nakamura going to the HOF would be like a Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith SR going to the pro football HOF as soon as they retired assuming there was no retirement rules. Yeah they are probably HOF worthy but not jump ahead of the line worthy.

 

It's even worse than that. It would be as if they had both gone in three or four years ago. It's so obviously absurd that I can't believe Dave continues to defend it.

[Robert S]

If I'm reading this correctly, Danielson didn't place in the to 30 as voted by current or former wrestlers. That is absolutely mind boggling.

Danielson got 12% from active wrestlers.

[SlingshotSuplex]

Dave's assumption all along seemed to be that Styles needs a few more years on top, so why wasn't he added in a few more years rather than now?

[kjh]

I don't see Nakamura getting strong support from Japan as surprising at all. I think most would agree that he's been the second or third biggest star in the whole country for the past 5-6 years. When was Akiyama or Taue that?

[Childs]

I don't see Nakamura getting strong support from Japan as surprising at all. I think most would agree that he's been the second or third biggest star in the whole country for the past 5-6 years. When was Akiyama or Taue that?

Every five-year period is not created equal. Taue was a main-event player during a run when All-Japan sold out Budokan like clockwork. Akiyama headlined Dome shows that did far bigger numbers than New Japan has hit during its recent resurgence. I wouldn't say either has a strong case as a HOF draw. But I also wouldn't say it's at all clear that Nakamura is a bigger star than either of them.

[jdw]

Here's the full breakdown for posterity.

 

It's really a meaningless breakdown unless there are actual numbers attached to the breakdown.

 

Dave doesn't tell us how many are in each bucket, and how those votes break down.

[Parties]

Re: Nakamura vs. Akiyama/Taue: Japan was much deeper then than it is today, with several successful companies going at once and way more talent in high-profile opportunities. There is now one company that matters in Japan. Nakamura will probably end up being more influential than Akiyama or Taue, but I wouldn't say that's a good thing. Is he more of a household name? He's not as good a worker as either of them.

 

Re: Styles - I read and listened to Dave's explanation. He's still saying that in all likelihood, if Styles continues to be where he's at now, he'll put him on again for a third time in five years, despite less than 10% of voters agreeing with him. Maybe that number grows considerably. I'm not even saying it's a bad move necessarily - maybe he'll have a better case by 2017 - just that it demonstrates a very pronounced favoring of Styles and modern NJ. Dave thinks it's among the best wrestling ever. Fine. But when guys like Murdoch, Buddy Rose, Sabu, Patera, Marty Jones, and Rick Rude have been removed from the ballot in the last few years, I'm wondering what makes Styles so bulletproof. And I say that as someone who both likes his work and has a reverence for international journeymen "touring champ" types.

[kjh]

I agree that not all periods are created equal. But once the voters let Tanahashi in, it's very hard to see them keeping Nakamura out.

[jdw]

BTW, if one wants an idea of how widely Dave hands out ballots:

 

Japan Region

Shinsuke Nakamura-- 73%--120

Volk Han got 54%--86

 

The fewest ballots that there could be in the Japan Region for Volk to get to 54% would be 160. Of course that would give Nakamura 75%, so either Steve typed it up wrong or Dave did the math wrong.

 

160 votes in the Japan Region is a shit ton of votes in a year where there isn't someone like Kobashi or Liger on the ballot i.e. someone who would draw a lot of votes from marginal puroresu fans or even lots of votes from non-puroresu fans just voting on the rep.

 

Given Brock's 297 = 76%, that means there were between 389-393 voters in the Big Region... which is pretty mind boggling.

 

Again, the break down on the types of voters is meaningless without Dave indicating how the roughly 400 voters break down into the specific buckets.

 

Even then they're pretty meaningless unless he also then breaks down the regions. Who is voting in the Puroresu and Lucha categories?

[pol]

Nakamura vs. Akiyama does present an interesting dilemma re: whether you value relative or absolute success more. Accepting both of the following narratives as true for argument's sake, is Nakamura's role as a draw in NJPW's post-2012 turnaround more impressive than Akiyama's run as the top guy for NOAH, since Akiyama's run was down from where the promotion was before, even though in terms of raw numbers he was playing to far bigger houses?

 

(I understand this isn't the only issue on which these two could be compared, and Akiyama's body of work pretty well eclipses Nakamura's, but it's interesting to think about in isolation.)

[jdw]

I could swear that folks gave Tanahashi all of the credit for drawing in the turnaround when pushing to get him into the HOF quickly. So now it's Nakamura?

 

I could find two dozen Budokan's that Taue main evented or co-main evented between 12/90 & 6/00 for All Japan, probably close to 40% of the Budokans they ran in that period and largely packed until the tail end (interestingly enough when he mained fewer). How much credit do folks want to give Taue for that "drawing" when trying to pimp him as a candidate?

[Cox]

I will preface my comments to say that, for better or worse, I "get" the WON HOF. It isn't ideal, but it's the best we have. Is it strange that Brock Lesnar is on the ballot despite being an active pro wrestler for six and a half years, and being a full-time, major league pro wrestler for three years? Sure, but he has moved numbers in an era where only Cena appreciably moves numbers. I personally think that waiting until well after a wrestler's peak, be it 20 years from their debut, 25 years after their debut, whatever would be a lot better for voters to have a full story of whether a wrestler belongs in the HOF, but I also understand Dave has a completely different point of view regarding this, and it's his HOF, so he sets the rules. I get it. I disagree, but I get it.

 

What I don't get is why Dave keeps re-adding AJ Styles to the ballot. Two years ago, I think it was said that AJ Styles had the lowest voting percentage of any candidate that has ever been on the WON HOF ballot before. So clearly, nothing that Styles had done from 1998 to 2013 had warranted Styles even the slightest bit of consideration from the electorate regarding his candidacy for the ballot.

 

Fast forward two years. Styles has since become the gaijin ace of New Japan, having many great matches with the top stars of the #2 wrestling company in the world. He's held the IWGP Heavyweight title twice, headlined a good amount of shows that have drawn decent crowds, and even upped his standing in the US with ROH and the indies, to where he has become one of the top indy draws in the US. Despite all of this, Styles can't even get 10% to remain on the ballot an additional year.

 

Now Dave is talking about adding him again in two years, but now in the Japanese section. Can't we just let Styles' NJPW career breathe a little, just to see what his ultimate legacy is there? Why the rush to get him on the ballot now? If he was a candidate worth keeping on the ballot, he would have stayed on the ballot one of these two times, but he can't even muster up 10% of the vote to stay on the ballot. Just wait 5 years and see where his NJPW career stands after that point. Even two years from now, in the most optimistic scenario, you'll be talking about a career where Styles had four HOF-quality years and 15 years where he basically accomplished absolutely nothing. That is what bugs me more than anything about the WON HOF. Just let these guys build their candidacies.

[goc]

What evidence do we really have that Brock Lesnar moves numbers (in WWE) though? I really haven't seen much. Yea he was a big PPV draw for UFC but I haven't really seen where that's carried over.

[Matt Farmer]

 

I don't see Nakamura getting strong support from Japan as surprising at all. I think most would agree that he's been the second or third biggest star in the whole country for the past 5-6 years. When was Akiyama or Taue that?

Every five-year period is not created equal. Taue was a main-event player during a run when All-Japan sold out Budokan like clockwork. Akiyama headlined Dome shows that did far bigger numbers than New Japan has hit during its recent resurgence. I wouldn't say either has a strong case as a HOF draw. But I also wouldn't say it's at all clear that Nakamura is a bigger star than either of them.

 

During All Japan's peak from 1990 to 1996 or 97' Taue was never higher than the number 6th or 7th star in the company. During that period of time Misawa, Kawada, Kobashi, Tsuruta, Stan Hansen, Steve Williams and Terry Gordy were all bigger stars than Taue. And while this is a minor point when Taue did become Triple Crown champ, it was his first defense of the title at Budokan Hall that lead to All Japan's first failure at selling the building out in something like 6 years.

 

Out of all the Japanese stars that peaked during the 1990's Akira Taue is not even in the top 10. I've never seen Taue or even Akiyama as a Hall of Famer, heck besides brief periods of their careers neither have stood out as major stars.

[Sean Liska]

What evidence do we really have that Brock Lesnar moves numbers (in WWE) though? I really haven't seen much. Yea he was a big PPV draw for UFC but I haven't really seen where that's carried over.

 

The problem right now is we don't know how the hell to analyze WWE numbers. Mania caused the Network to peak at over 1.3 million. Is that a positive for Lesnar's candidacy? The SummerSlam match with Taker made it so they only lost a few hundred thousand subscribers between Mania and the end of September. I mean, that seems pretty good to me, but we don't have any way to know what the drop would have been with a weaker match on top.

[Childs]

My argument wasn't that Taue was a major star, though I believe he was the No. 4 or No. 5 guy in All Japan at times during that run. My point was you can argue that being a supporting main eventer in '90s All Japan is more impressive than being the No. 3 guy in recent New Japan. And it would be better if voters had more time to weigh this period of New Japan instead of deciding on Nakamura at the height of his acclaim.

[shakla]

On the "Voting Groups" top 30 rankings, isn't it ranked by percentage of votes rather than total votes? With Crockett Sr. being #1 with active wrestlers, it's probably that only a small portion of the active wrestlers voted in the US Historical category and most of them picked him. Could be something like being on 9 of 12 ballots. The rest of the top 6 for active wrestlers are all guys in either the historical or non-US/Canada categories.

[Loss]

I don't think we know enough about who moves numbers at this point to say who is and isn't doing it, especially since all we have is second hand information from Dave to go off of. It's unfortunate and I say that not to question Dave's credibility, but because everyone in WWE has an agenda, and despite what people say, even numbers have opinions.

[W2BTD]

I agree that not all periods are created equal. But once the voters let Tanahashi in, it's very hard to see them keeping Nakamura out.

 

I know you aren't disagreeing and speaking more from the perspective of the Japan voters, but Tanahashi's resume blows Nakamura out of the water.

 

So does Akiyama's, for that matter.

 

CIMA has a stronger resume than Nak, too.

 

With all of that said, and even though I didn't vote for him, I'm not annoyed that he got in.

[jdw]

 

 

I don't see Nakamura getting strong support from Japan as surprising at all. I think most would agree that he's been the second or third biggest star in the whole country for the past 5-6 years. When was Akiyama or Taue that?

Every five-year period is not created equal. Taue was a main-event player during a run when All-Japan sold out Budokan like clockwork. Akiyama headlined Dome shows that did far bigger numbers than New Japan has hit during its recent resurgence. I wouldn't say either has a strong case as a HOF draw. But I also wouldn't say it's at all clear that Nakamura is a bigger star than either of them.

 

During All Japan's peak from 1990 to 1996 or 97' Taue was never higher than the number 6th or 7th star in the company. During that period of time Misawa, Kawada, Kobashi, Tsuruta, Stan Hansen, Steve Williams and Terry Gordy were all bigger stars than Taue. And while this is a minor point when Taue did become Triple Crown champ, it was his first defense of the title at Budokan Hall that lead to All Japan's first failure at selling the building out in something like 6 years.

 

Out of all the Japanese stars that peaked during the 1990's Akira Taue is not even in the top 10. I've never seen Taue or even Akiyama as a Hall of Famer, heck besides brief periods of their careers neither have stood out as major stars.

 

 

I don't vote for Taue as a HOFer, but...

 

He was a bigger star than Williams after the Narita Nightmare: 3/95 through the rest of the decade.

 

He was a bigger star than Hansen from the Carny in 1995 through the rest of the decade as well.

 

Gordy was gone after 7/93.

 

One could point to Vader, but it's little over a year and Vader basically was an outsider being brought in rather than someone who had worked for the promotion for a dozen years, like Taue. They're not really comparable by that point. Vader was a bigger star for a year than Kobashi and Kawada as well, but it doesn't really mean anything.

 

Jumbo was always bigger, but that was over in 10/92.

 

Taue was pushed harder than Kobashi through 1995, and after that they were pushed pretty much the same through the end of 1997. Kobashi was more popular, Taue was ranked higher. One can rate that however they want.

 

He was behind Misawa and Kawada the entire decade, with the exception of the period where Kawada was in the dog house.

 

Jun was pushed harder at the very end of the pre-split promotion, but not really a bigger star.

 

It's hard to rate where one would rank the guys for the "decade" because only the Four made it through all of it.

 

Regardless, I wouldn't rate him as never getting higher than "#6 or #7" in the promotion. He was the #3/4 star of the promotion from 4/95 to the split, dipping lower if one counts Vader for a short period of time with the note that Vader himself is an oddball case.

 

It was a structured, closed promotion. No one other than Misawa had runs like Hash, Mutoh and Sasaki had in New Japan as the #1 guy. Kawada didn't have the run. Tenryu didn't have that run opposite Jumbo. It's just not how Baba operated.

[kjh]

Even two years from now, in the most optimistic scenario, you'll be talking about a career where Styles had four HOF-quality years and 15 years where he basically accomplished absolutely nothing.

 

Given that Styles is primarily a work candidate and he was churning out high quality matches in TNA/ROH/indies on a regular basis from 2002-2013, it would be wrong to say he accomplished absolutely nothing. Clearly, Dave values that a lot more than his electorate does.

[JonnyBart]

I think that will change as votes go to more modern voters who grew up wrestling on and watching/appreciating the indies. You'll see vote totals change for guys like Punk and AJ Styles after a while.

[Matt Farmer]

My argument wasn't that Taue was a major star, though I believe he was the No. 4 or No. 5 guy in All Japan at times during that run. My point was you can argue that being a supporting main eventer in '90s All Japan is more impressive than being the No. 3 guy in recent New Japan. And it would be better if voters had more time to weigh this period of New Japan instead of deciding on Nakamura at the height of his acclaim.

I do understand what you're saying. However, if in 1994 you are number 4 of 5 or 6 then he would be maybe at the very best number 13 or 14 in Japan. Wrestling was a much bigger deal in Japan than over now so Taue would as a star would easily be behind Misawa, Kawada, Kobashi, Hansen and Williams for All Japan. Then behind Muto, Chono, Hashimoto, Choshu, Fujinami, Vader and maybe Hase. He'd also be well behind Onita, Tenryu, Maeda, and Takada. There are many others you can argue would be over Taue, but these names were all more impressive and bigger stars during Taue's run.

 

Today the top three guys in New Japan are the top three guys in Japan period. You may be able to reach down and find the forth guy in New Japan and make a case for him (maybe AJ Styles) but it would be a stretch.