What are you expecting/hoping for in wrestling in 2008?

[kjh]

You do raise some good points but I would like to think (and no one outside the company knows for sure) that they are cutting corners since growth hasn't happened as much as hoped for. This would be as opposed to them actually losing money. I would hope that Gabe learned enough from Heyman and that Cary is a savvy enough business man to try to proactively maintain an even-or-better bottom line before money losses start.

I think if Cary Silkin had made his first cent in overall profit on his ROH investment by the spring of 2007 they would have never made the move to PPV. I don't get the sense that the move to PPV was a Hail Mary, but I do get the sense that Silkin had invested a lot of money into the promotion and was getting itchy feet as he hadn't seen any return on that investment yet. I mean if Gabe had stopped the promotion before the money losses started it would have been closed when he gained control of the promotion, as the only reason ROH has stayed in business for as long as it has is due to Rob Feinstein paying for it from the proceeds of his video company and then when that wasn't enough to keep it afloat finding an outside investor in Cary Silkin.

[WrestlingPower]

I don't think Cary bought into this with the idea of making an investment, turning a profit, and getting out. I think he really enjoys owning a wrestling promotion. With the number of guys they book per show I'm sure it was harder and harder to turn a profit assuming their business model was still break even on the live shows and make money on the DVDs. And I'm sure the guys working in the office would like to actually get a raise every now and then. These are mostly guys in their mid-30s starting families. There's only so long you can live a college fantasy of living off peddling videos and running an indy. They are looking to pursue other revenue streams and cutting unnecessary costs. That's smart business, not necessarily a sign of trouble.

 

And I don't think the cutting costs story being published in a couple insider sheets and being discussed on the internet is exactly "a public announcement". It's not like they sent out a press release or put it up on their website.

[Tim Evans]

Well it's the end of the year so I thought it would be fun to look back at this. Sadly, I was right about Konnan killing AAA and Jeff failing a drug test. But I was also right about Jeff getting a title run.

 

SLL was correct about ROH and NOAH going close to the grave.

 

We should start doing 2009 Predictions.

[sek69]

I don't know if I'd say ROH was close to the grave. If anything, it seems like Cary finally got sick of Gabe running the company like an e-fed and making masturbatory trips to Japan that cost a buttload of money for little return. I read that they're expecting one of their largest crowds ever for the next NYC show, so perhaps they made the right move at the right time to avoid getting in too deep of a hole.

 

 

As far as 2009 goes, could this be the year we see one or possibly several major companies folding? NOAH is reeling and All-Japan seems to be hanging on by the thinnest of threads.

[S.L.L.]

I don't know if I'd say ROH was close to the grave. If anything, it seems like Cary finally got sick of Gabe running the company like an e-fed and making masturbatory trips to Japan that cost a buttload of money for little return. I read that they're expecting one of their largest crowds ever for the next NYC show, so perhaps they made the right move at the right time to avoid getting in too deep of a hole.

Well, the company almost did go under this year. That and NOAH losing their NTV deal actually puts both companies much closer to the grave than I had really predicted, as I was looking for a more gradual decline than the big drops we've seen. Part of the "gradual decline" theory meant that I was not predicting Gabe would lose his job, so that could change things in a big way. Whether or not it actually will has yet to be seen, but I guess we'll find out.

[Death From Above]

All Japan has been on a thin thread for years, but they seem to understand how to operate within that. Are they really any thinner now than they were in the period where wrestlers were being paid in tickets that they could sell on their own to certain shows?

 

Whether NOAH can do the same job of operating on a smaller level remains to be seen. I don't see either going under in 2009. NOAH could become the worst company in the world right now today and it wouldn't change that it would take more than 12 months to kill their hardcore fanbase which should keep them afloat at least in the short term, I would think.

 

Japan is entering a phase where for the first time in history of the business there, they can't on any significant level prop up a product through the sheer mass of network TV which they've always had. Through sheer number of people you're marketing to, you can do a lot of things that wouldn't otherwise succeed and still work. That's totally done, it's a coffin that's been being built for years and is now more or less complete. I don't think the future answer lies so much with in ring talent (although I do think Japanese wrestling isn't what it used to be in ring but bad in ring product has never stopped anyone from making money), but in bookers finding new and creative ways to get people to care about their products.

 

Whether in the next decade even new creative booking ideas are enough if network TV won't touch them anymore there, I don't know. Being on cable in the US is fine. In Japan being off the main networks is barely distinguishable from not being on TV at all.

 

I think there's going to have to be a radical change in the business in Japan for it to "recover" business wise. Something really left field, in the "FMW is doing WHAT in their matches" sense... not meaning "get hardcore/have bomb matches", meaning "Something no one had really thought of and executed before that hotshots business for a few years". UWF was something radically different in the 80's, FMW in the '90's in the totally opposite way, I don't think the 00's have really had that radically different thing. HUSTLE in many ways could be, the Americanized style as interpeted in Japan, but it has never resulted in any large scale big business the kind produced by people like Maeda, Takada, Onita etc. I guess maybe one has to look towards 2010 and beyond to see if that next "new idea" catches on. Might not be a new company, just new ideas from within the old ones, but something fundamental has got to change or the Japanese business is going to stay more or less indy-level for a long, long time.

[ohtani's jacket]

The entertainment business in Japan relies heavily on network TV to provide mainstream exposure. Only the most established acts make infrequent TV appearances. Everyone else is on TV multiple times a week. And they're all fighting over a shrinking market.

 

Japanese wrestling hasn't had proper mainstream exposure since the late 80s. They haven't been able to replace the Showa era fans with new fans, as young people either don't know wrestling exists or simply don't care. And it's only going to get worse in the 2010s. Personally I can't see the industry surviving.

[Sean Liska]

I don't know if I'd say ROH was close to the grave. If anything, it seems like Cary finally got sick of Gabe running the company like an e-fed and making masturbatory trips to Japan that cost a buttload of money for little return. I read that they're expecting one of their largest crowds ever for the next NYC show, so perhaps they made the right move at the right time to avoid getting in too deep of a hole.

Nah, the majority of the huge advance came from when Gabe was still booking and the lineup is full of Japanese guys that Gabe made deals for. Even Gabe's harshest critics should admit he did a tremendous job with the NYC market. If they could have grown elsewhere like they did in New York, ROH would be really healthy. Anyways, too early to tell anything on the new team.

 

There seem to be two scenarios going on with ROH. One is that they're losing a ton of money and that the only way Cary could justify continuing was by making a change. The second is that Cary is OK with losing some money, but he wasn't having any fun because Gabe was such a pain and Cary had no creative input. The first scenario would likely lead to ROH not lasting much longer because I don't see a turnaround coming (although the HD-Net deal could convince Cary to lose more money for a while longer). The second scenario would allow ROH to stay alive for a while.

[sek69]

Wasn't it just mentioned in the WON when discussing Gabe's dismissal that ROH is basically OK as long as Cary keeps funding it?

[Indikator]

Finally a board that recognizes the importance of network tv. I always thought that the lack of it was the reason that kept TenKoji from the likes of Kobashi und the musketeers apart.

 

In the end we will see a shift in distribution of the product. Over here in Europe I talked to a couple of guys in the business how an (internet based?) "on demand" service is going to be the next big thing - or rather how promotions are going to get their lion share at some point in the future. You can only guess when such a system can keep a promotion afloat.

 

I often wonder how ECW could have survived in a DVD era, although you can't neglect the infotainment aspect of Hardcore TV that led to a whole lot of penetration that ROH has been missing. It's really interesting to see how the studio format made promotions in the late 50s and how they were the doom for a couple of promitions thirty years later. And the more I learn about the old European tournament system the more I am amazed how an ancient and superceeded promotional concept had an impact over the business.

 

We all have seen how MP3 and the internet has changed the music industry over the past few years. And it is quite possible that such a fragmentation of the wrestling business is going to happen. Heck, didn't it already happen in Japan with pretty-boy , worked-shoot and hardcore promotions for niche (or rather non-mainstream) audiences? We westerners should get used to the fact that there is not only one local promotion that offers a certain wrestling style. Welcome to the globalisation, I guess.

[sek69]

I think Japanese fans never had the model of wrestling being defined as one company who's goal was putting everyone else out of business by any means. Sure, New Japan and All Japan were rivals but you don't really have the situation that you have in the US where non fans consider all wrestling to be WWE (or WWF to non fans who still aren't aware of the name change). I think the different mindset helps smaller companies in Japan since it's pretty hard for US indies to overcome the perception that since all wrestling is WWE, people expect WWE style matches.

[Childs]

There seem to be two scenarios going on with ROH. One is that they're losing a ton of money and that the only way Cary could justify continuing was by making a change. The second is that Cary is OK with losing some money, but he wasn't having any fun because Gabe was such a pain and Cary had no creative input. The first scenario would likely lead to ROH not lasting much longer because I don't see a turnaround coming (although the HD-Net deal could convince Cary to lose more money for a while longer). The second scenario would allow ROH to stay alive for a while.

My guess is that it's scenario No. 2, because there's no great indication of cost cutting. I was surprised when, after all the post-Gabe gloom-and-doom, they announced they're going to Houston for Wrestlemania weekend. They also seem to be returning to most of the new markets they tested in 2008. That suggests to me that the losses haven't been catastrophic and that Cary can afford to keep the company going as long as it amuses him.

[Loss]

In 2009, I'd like to see WWE move away from on-demand programming in the form of 24/7 and get a regular, full-time cable channel. I think in the long run, getting away from USA would be good for WWE, because the focus could shift away from USA-forced hotshotting of trying to get high TV ratings and they could again focus on house shows and pay-per-view build, and the big matches would seem more special because there wouldn't be so much constant top star interaction.

 

This probably won't happen in '09, but I'd take it happening in '10 or '11 just the same.

 

WWE embracing the new HGH testing would be nice too.

 

My fandom is at an all-time low, as I still haven't really been able to wash away the stench of the Benoit stuff, and I'm not sure what WWE can really do to rectify that.

[kjh]

Wouldn't having their own cable channel make them even more concerned about TV ratings and advertising rates than they are now?

[Loss]

I don't think they would, really. USA seems to want RAW to hotshot its way back to 6.0 weekly ratings. An all-wrestling cable channel would do better cable ratings than most. They wouldn't have any ridiculous expectations like that bestowed upon them that weren't self-imposed. Even if they were doing WCW 2000-level ratings, they would still be doing very well compared to other shows, and they'd be fine.

[Indikator]

Wouldn't having their own cable channel make them even more concerned about TV ratings and advertising rates than they are now?

Vince pretty much stopped caring about quality programming after WCW and ECW went under. A cable channel would strenghten his monopoly on the wrestling industy, thus I don't think he is concerned about these things as long as he still has +500 million $

[kjh]

The problem is I don't see WWE being content doing WCW 2000-level ratings, when they are used to doing significantly better. You can't place the blame for WWE's recent hotshot booking solely on USA when WWE did a record rating on MyNetwork TV for Smackdown's recent debut on the network but they still subsequently felt the need to give away a series of major matches (including the first match between Taker and Hunter for over 6 years) because the debut rating was down 27% of what they drew the previous week on CW.

[jdw]

I've advocated doing their own network in the past. The question now would be whether it's a good idea in the current economic environment. They would have to outlay some cash and investment in it. I've never been sold that they *have* to buy out some existing network to get penetration. Here's one current list of Cable/Satellite Networks:

 

Wiki: List of United States cable and satellite television networks

 

There are a zillion of them. MLB just launched a network, with an interesting concept of offering the carriers a cut of the new venture. The NHL Network launched in the US in 2007. The Tennis Channel is out there, and it draws test patern ratings.

 

Clearly they would need to get the providers behind it.

 

But the costs are a bit of a worry. The Cash & Short Term Investment was down from $266M to $176M from their Dec 2007 filing to their Sep 2008 filing. They're still pouring $20M or so a quarter into dividends, which is largely Vince's pocket. In tough times, you want to hang onto that Cash & Short Term Investment because who knows when things take a massive drop. The difference between running "live events" on USA/CW/MyTV and yourself is that those networks pay enough not only to cover production costs, but also turn some profit. On the WWE Network, the WWE would have to pick up costs until advertising kicked in strongly enough. There is some buzz that advertising money is going to get pinched for Old Media as more of it moves to New Media. There also remains the ongoing problem of wrestling programming not getting advertising money at a rate that one would expect for its ratings relative to other programing.

 

It's possible that there's a bargin out there that they could pick off, but it's likely someone else would be eyeballing it even more with deeper pockets.

 

I don't know if their time has passed. This really is something the WWE should have done long ago back instead of the XFL. Rather than suckering NBC and Viacom into partnerships for the XFL, the time was ripe to drag networks into partnerships to create a Wrestling Channel. That type of muscle would have gotten them the penetration they needed.

 

 

John

[Cox]

The problem is, do you think Vince would be willing to offer a cut of the WWE Channel to cable and satellite providers? He has battled with the industry in the past, once having pulled his PPVs off of DirecTV until they were willing to offer him a higher cut of profits. I don't get the feeling that Vince would play nice enough to offer a cut of the network to cable providers, and he would have to in order to get clearances on this (look at the NFL Network, which is still not on major cable systems in the Northeast).

[jdw]

I think I'd offer a cut if it would keep the channel out of one of their tiers where it costs extra to subscribe to it. You don't want to risk that and end up on a tier where only 30% of homes in a system sub to it. What the WWE would want is Basic level penetration. So sure... create a subsidiary that handles the network. 33% of it to divy up among the providors. The WWE should study how the NHL did theirs. It's almost certain that the rights of the content remain in the hands of the NHL rather than becoming an asset of the subsidary/network. See how the NHL deals with "costs" for the content.

 

John

[Tim Evans]

Isn't NHL on one of those channels that hardly anyone gets? I mean sure they have a weekly game on NBC but hell they use to be on ESPN.

[sek69]

Isn't NHL on one of those channels that hardly anyone gets? I mean sure they have a weekly game on NBC but hell they use to be on ESPN.

The non-NBC national games are on Versus, which is on the sports tier of most cable companies, but most local market games are on the regional Fox Sports affiliates which are on the standard lineup for most providers.

 

Also, this could be a good time for WWE to launch a channel as long as they don't ask for a ridiculous carriage fee from providers. Cable and satellite companies are getting tired of being held hostage by the large conglomerates that own most local stations, so WWE offering a proven commodity for a fair rate would probably get some attention.