The Wednesday Night War

[FMKK]

Yeah, what can NXT bring that's bigger than what they did last night? AEW still has a fair bit in reserve with big matches on the table. Obviously they've got to try to maintain this now, which is difficult, it an encouraging start.

So, Taker vs Goldberg rematch in Full Sail next week?

[Mad Dog]

2 minutes ago, FMKK said:

Yeah, what can NXT bring that's bigger than what they did last night? AEW still has a fair bit in reserve with big matches on the table. Obviously they've got to try to maintain this now, which is difficult, it an encouraging start.

So, Taker vs Goldberg rematch in Full Sail next week?

That's why I thought NXT's week 1 rating was so bad. With the history of WWE B shows they needed a much bigger number to remain sustainable. NXT could be doing 500k a show by the end of the year the way they've shed audience so far. I just don't think they have wide enough appeal and they have done a really bad job at making newcomers give a shit.

[Matt D]

So wait, AEW did their big number but NXT only lost 10K from last week? I get that double dipping in ratings is possible but that seems striking to me.

[Jmare007]

2.3 million people (aprox.) watching wrestling on a Wednesday from 1 brand new promotion and WWE's 3rd "brand" is a pretty damn cool.

[Mad Dog]

7 minutes ago, Matt D said:

So wait, AEW did their big number but NXT only lost 10K from last week? I get that double dipping in ratings is possible but that seems striking to me.

If you look at the demos, I don't think there is much of a cross over audience. AEW pulled a much younger audience. I know several people that watched AEW and NXT wasn't even on their radar. I do think NXT's numbers are troubling. They've said a quarter of their audience already and I don't see that reversing.

[Matt D]

Don't AEW fans like Adam Cole?

[Mad Dog]

3 minutes ago, Matt D said:

Don't AEW fans like Adam Cole?

I think only in the context of being in the Bullet Club.

[sek69]

WWE putting out a statement congratulating AEW is hilarious for many reasons. Mainly that the whole point of them counter programming with NXT was to damage any potential competition for their talent to work at, and also you know it really burns Vince's (and Hunter's) ass to lose like this.

[Mad Dog]

I kind of wonder what they do with NXT the next few weeks. Do they keep hotshotting? Bring in more Raw/Smackdown guys? Or do they just go back to the usual NXT formula and accept that they lost unless AEW totally falls off.

[Boss Rock]

Pretty awesome news for AEW.

[FMKK]

14 minutes ago, sek69 said:

WWE putting out a statement congratulating AEW is hilarious for many reasons. Mainly that the whole point of them counter programming with NXT was to damage any potential competition for their talent to work at, and also you know it really burns Vince's (and Hunter's) ass to lose like this.

This is probably the biggest L HHH has taken really since the start of big push 20 years ago.

[Burgundy LaRue]

WWE has buffered itself by turning this into AEW vs NXT. One could argue AEW should handily beat WWE's third brand, just to play devil's advocate.

TNT has been a wasteland on Wednesdays and USA was limping by with Suits, which just ended. If these numbers stay in this ballpark, both networks will be happy. NXT will need to bring in more of the 18-49 demo, but the overall figures are good.

But also looking at the numbers, AEW and NXT combined didn't beat what some felt was an average-to-pretty bad RAW this week. If we accept RAW's 2.5 or 2.6 million viewers as the core fanbase, then 200-350K fans didn't tune in to either show.

That's the million-dollar question: how can pro wrestling bring in new viewers? Both NXT and AEW have been decently promoted, yet only maintained 90% of the core. There are new fans to be had, but I don't see where either show is promoting the necessary talent to pull them in.

[sek69]

39 minutes ago, Burgundy LaRue said:

WWE has buffered itself by turning this into AEW vs NXT. One could argue AEW should handily beat WWE's third brand, just to play devil's advocate.

TNT has been a wasteland on Wednesdays and USA was limping by with Suits, which just ended. If these numbers stay in this ballpark, both networks will be happy. NXT will need to bring in more of the 18-49 demo, but the overall figures are good.

This is all true, and most rational people would be happy with those numbers. 

However we know WWE isn't run by rational people, and they  clearly were expecting their mighty WWE peen to crush these upstarts. They wouldn't have made moves like no commercials for the first half hour, loading up on title matches, and adding an overrun just just for giggles. I'm sure they never thought for a second they would lose, even in week one. 

 

[El-P]

And this marks the first time since Nitro beat RAW sometime in 1998 (Hogan vs Goldy at the Georgia Dome ?) that a WWE program has been beat in the ratings by opposition. And it wasn't even needed. Well done Vince.

1 hour ago, sek69 said:

WWE putting out a statement congratulating AEW is hilarious for many reasons.

Talk about damage control and backpedalling.

58 minutes ago, FMKK said:

This is probably the biggest L HHH has taken really since the start of big push 20 years ago.

 I wonder if HHH would want to switch some people from that pissant company with anyone of his NXT guys now...

Anyway, I did not expect that at all. But it is pretty awesome.

[El-P]

58 minutes ago, Burgundy LaRue said:

But also looking at the numbers, AEW and NXT combined didn't beat what some felt was an average-to-pretty bad RAW this week. If we accept RAW's 2.5 or 2.6 million viewers as the core fanbase, then 200-350K fans didn't tune in to either show.

That's the million-dollar question: how can pro wrestling bring in new viewers? Both NXT and AEW have been decently promoted, yet only maintained 90% of the core. There are new fans to be had, but I don't see where either show is promoting the necessary talent to pull them in.

Except it's a mistake to consider the RAW audience as the core fanbase for "pro-wrestling". It's the core audience for WWE. Thus far, it's been showed with PPV buys overlapse (or lack thereof) between audiences that AEW fans mostly aren't watching WWE. 

[FMKK]

1 hour ago, El-P said:

Except it's a mistake to consider the RAW audience as the core fanbase for "pro-wrestling". It's the core audience for WWE. Thus far, it's been showed with PPV buys overlapse (or lack thereof) between audiences that AEW fans mostly aren't watching WWE. 

Yeah, I do think we could be seeing the beginnings of divergent wrestling audiences here if AEW can keep things up. The concerning sign for WWE is that their audience is the older one. Who popped the rating for Raw on Monday? Hogan and Flair!

I would love AEW to keep it up not only because it would be great for the business, but also because the implications for WWE and HHH in particular are fascinating. His booking on NXT has been praised for years now but this is really the first time when he's had to pop numbers.

[El-P]

45 minutes ago, FMKK said:

Yeah, I do think we could be seeing the beginnings of divergent wrestling audiences here if AEW can keep things up.

Hopefully. And I'm absolutely part of this. I watched more or less the last three weeks of NXT, just to "prepare myself" to this week, and honestly I'm not gonna keep watching. It just doesn't interest me, it still totally feels like WWE to me (despite talent I like a lot). With AEW no in full effect, I have less than zero reason to force myself to watch anything I don't really like.

45 minutes ago, FMKK said:

I would love AEW to keep it up not only because it would be great for the business, but also because the implications for WWE and HHH in particular are fascinating. His booking on NXT has been praised for years now but this is really the first time when he's had to pop numbers.

Agreed. It could get very interesting politically speaking if Trip's NXT on TV ends up being a failure. 

[sek69]

I recall pointing out that there is a big audience of wrestling fans who are not WWE fans that no one's really tried to cater to in 20 years. Everyone else tried to be WWE lite, which why would you bother with Dollar Store WWE when you can just watch actual WWE?  

[Migs]

Wow, from the Observer.

"The key point is that AEW beat both Raw and Smackdown significantly in viewers under 34."

[Matt D]

3 minutes ago, Migs said:

Wow, from the Observer.

"The key point is that AEW beat both Raw and Smackdown significantly in viewers under 34."

Doesn't everyone under 34 watch things streaming later?

[sek69]

I heard a very prescient thing about the mindset of both companies that I think will go a long way in determining how things pan out. Both companies have plans laid out on how they want to proceed, but while AEW does a good job of getting the fans to buy in that the company is trying to give them what they want, WWE tells their fans they are getting what they are getting and to be happy with it. 

WWE gets so weirdly antagonistic towards their own fanbase it's created a mindset where the company is the top heel. When a heel does something dastardly, the heat is rarely on the individual but more "how dare the company make X do such a tasteless thing".  One thing that was crystal clear on Wednesday is that the AEW fans *love* the company so far. They willed that show  into something better than it would have been on paper. I got goosebumps when Cody came out to start the show, these people were so into their guy they view as the heart of the company. It was kind of shocking to see that level of engagement after decades of WWE crowds barely able to show any enthusiasm after having the rug pulled from people they got behind time after time.

Now obviously no one can give the fans everything they want 100% of the time, but at one time it was Basic Wrestling 101. Every territory had a Jim Crockett Jr type who would represent the company and occasionally appear to right some wrong or punish a heel for something exceptionally heinous . When they had to punish a babyface it was usually because they crossed the line and did something that deserved it. Creating an atmosphere where the management is actively fighting the wishes of the fans is both weird and harmful to business. 

[Coffey]

AEW also had a crowd full of wrestling fans that wanted to see wrestling. A lot of WWE crowds are families that show up because wrestling came to town & fuck it, there's nothing else to do. Like going to the circus or the fair. That's a big distinction. Especially when it comes to crowd noise & participation. It's why Toronto is always such a great wrestling crowd & Chicago. 

 

[FMKK]

1 hour ago, sek69 said:

I heard a very prescient thing about the mindset of both companies that I think will go a long way in determining how things pan out. Both companies have plans laid out on how they want to proceed, but while AEW does a good job of getting the fans to buy in that the company is trying to give them what they want, WWE tells their fans they are getting what they are getting and to be happy with it. 

WWE gets so weirdly antagonistic towards their own fanbase it's created a mindset where the company is the top heel. When a heel does something dastardly, the heat is rarely on the individual but more "how dare the company make X do such a tasteless thing".  One thing that was crystal clear on Wednesday is that the AEW fans *love* the company so far. They willed that show  into something better than it would have been on paper. I got goosebumps when Cody came out to start the show, these people were so into their guy they view as the heart of the company. It was kind of shocking to see that level of engagement after decades of WWE crowds barely able to show any enthusiasm after having the rug pulled from people they got behind time after time.

Now obviously no one can give the fans everything they want 100% of the time, but at one time it was Basic Wrestling 101. Every territory had a Jim Crockett Jr type who would represent the company and occasionally appear to right some wrong or punish a heel for something exceptionally heinous . When they had to punish a babyface it was usually because they crossed the line and did something that deserved it. Creating an atmosphere where the management is actively fighting the wishes of the fans is both weird and harmful to business. 

When someone inevitably writes a book about all this in ten years, there really needs to be a chapter on WWE making itself a heel through a) decades of presenting the company owners as evil psychopaths, b) allowing those heel characters to be melded with their 'real life' perceptions, and c) that phase from 2013-16 or so of relentlessly trolling their own audience and baiting them to turn on the shows. Even if the booking turns around and WWE is producing amazing angles, it'll take a long time to repair the broken trust with the audience, if that's even fully possible.

[Mad Dog]

19 minutes ago, FMKK said:

When someone inevitably writes a book about all this in ten years, there really needs to be a chapter on WWE making itself a heel through a) decades of presenting the company owners as evil psychopaths, b) allowing those heel characters to be melded with their 'real life' perceptions, and c) that phase from 2013-16 or so of relentlessly trolling their own audience and baiting them to turn on the shows. Even if the booking turns around and WWE is producing amazing angles, it'll take a long time to repair the broken trust with the audience, if that's even fully possible.

I think it would take a year or two of amazing shows to regain trust. I mentioned it in another thread. I tuned in because I was interested in seeing Rollins vs. Misterio and just turned it off when I realized there was never any intention of delivering it.

[KawadaSmile]

I don't think it would take that long, tbh. If they manage to hit a 6 month long run of consistently good TV, they might regain the trust of some people. Usually WWE manages to put together one or two months of good shows before some missteps (even then, your mileage may vary), so six months would already be an indicator that they are willing to step up their booking.

And the same goes for AEW: if they manage to book their shows consistently for half a year, they are bound to get new fans.