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What is the future of NXT?


Dylan Waco

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They sold out a 4,000 seat building today in a few hours for Mania weekend. Mike Johnson says several in the company were stunned. More and more, I'm thinking this is going to be the most interesting story to follow in 2015. Vince is going to see the financial possibilities of this brand and he's going to want to really exploit it. That could be good or really bad.

 

Do you want to take a guy like Sami Zayn off the brand if he's capable of going on the road and drawing 2-3K a night? This could become complicated for them.

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I'm hoping Mookie can get back to me with some numbers so I can do a bit of analysis (probably with him) on the financial outcome of NXT selling out a 2k seater and then a 4k seater in the course of a month compared to house show attendance and where the growth potential can lead it. Because some back of the envelope math is telling me that if this continues to be an upward trend, it's going to be a much tougher financial decision than you might think.

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The Arnold Classic one is a little more interesting to me since I don't understand the demographics there. Was there already a crossover of wrestling fans attending? Was it just drawn from people in the local area? Did people actually travel far just for the novelty of seeing NXT?

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IF NXT does better house numbers than expected does NXT then become the 'second' WWE touring brand while the official second touring group is kept overseas more than usual? There are TONS of guys who are not doing jack. Would an 'international' touring brand consisting of 25 acts or so (I am talking about the Ryder's, Axel's, Truth's, Rose's, Tamina Snuka's etc.) be enough to satisfy the international markets (include Cena, Orton, Sheamus in select international cities)?

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Only two hours from Columbus to Cleveland, so I'm not sure about that even being true. If I were assuming geography, the NE crowd would go to the Cleveland show and the midwest people would go to the Columbus show, and there would probably be some people would have gone to both.

Cleveland is easier to get to and probably quicker for Midwesterners unless you're from KC/St. Louis/Indianapolis or south from about there. For everyone else it's likely easier to take 80 straight to Cleveland. Not that Columbus is especially hard to get to either, but it's generally not any closer. I imagine Ohio fans easily traveled between the two and if you made time for one you probably tried to make time for both/

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So Mookie can back me up with some of the particulars, but in talking with him, hypothetically, there is a chance some type of NXT touring schedule could be worked out, but it would have to be done in a very specific way.

 

So the 4,000 seats sold in two hours is impressive, but the tickets are only $15 a pop. NXT production costs are tiny compared to what the big house shows run, but there are a couple opportunities here.

 

On non-PPV/TV live shows, WWE averaged around 5k per in 2014. Taking into account that an NXT house show would be attended by hardcore fans that would definitely plop down their money if they came to their town, it's not inconceivable that an NXT show could run smaller venues and sell them out in the 4-5k range. Now let's say they raise ticket prices to $25 a pop or set up a few VIPs at $35-40 or even $50, you're looking at a per-show take-in of anywhere from 100k-125k on gates alone.

 

Now, they won't be able to run 50 times a year like RAW or SmackDown! from a production standpoint, but as a hypothetical, I brought up a pretty easy scenario to follow. With the four specials a year and my idea about running a WWE Network show the night before your PPVs, that's 16 shows a year that would fill up arenas in the 4-5k range. That would bring in roughly $1.5M in gates alone.

 

Of course, the production costs, renting the arenas, bringing in talent, putting them up in hotels, etc. would be something that has to be taken into account, but with relatively low production costs, lower rental fees on smaller arenas, and just a lower scale on talent all together, I don't see why WWE wouldn't take advantage of the opportunity.

 

This all hinges on how long NXT can remain this intriguing, though. As many have said, NXT getting produced like the other brands would hurt it, but if it were still Triple H overseeing things with little oversight from the Raw/SmackDown! crew, then the product shouldn't suffer as a result and fans would still come out to watch it.

 

It's all about where they feel the ticket price sweet spot would go. 4k on WM weekend where thousands of hardcores will be may not seem as impressive when you take a step back, but considering 2k spots in Cleveland and Columbus were sold out relatively quickly and they drew from miles around, there's no reason to believe that running a Saturday special the night before a PPV featuring NXT only talent in a smaller arena wouldn't do the same thing. The problem is that there isn't much to test for in Florida since there are only a few places that could run a show of that magnitude in the state, but there are plenty of ways they could branch out their touring.

 

NXT doesn't figure into a lot of what WWE reports when it comes to their revenues since they tie it in to developmental, but I don't see that staying the same for long. Maybe they take the four specials and branch those out to bigger arenas to start, and then if they remain successful, try and do it by piggybacking the PPVs?

 

There's a lot of scenarios that could work here, but the success is going to come in figuring out the market that would allow them to grow without overplaying what they have. The 2300 Arena is a fine venue and ROH loves working there, but running the SJSU Event Center and selling it out where hardcores will most likely pay twice face value in scalping just to get in should give you an idea of the ceiling NXT could hit with a semi-regular touring schedule.

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There's no reason to tour if it isn't profitable. They're doing just fine touring Florida. If there's money in the NXT brand, and it's obvious there is, touring is the next logical step.

 

And as far as Vince getting involved, it depends on how they decide to tour. If they take the specials away from Full Sail, Vince most likely wouldn't be a part of it. Where he'd be a part of it is if they piggyback the PPVs.

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Profit's an interesting question though. Are these guys getting paid more per appearance like on the main roster or do they get paid the same whether they're doing house shows or not? Do they charge less for NXT tickets in general? If the training center is training new cameramen, sound guys, etc, does it make sense to tour so that they can get experience on the road as well?

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Maybe NXT is Vince finally allowing real competition, but still owning it? There is a small part of me that thinks they are allowing NXT to be built up and start touring to be the main competition to the WWE. The brand split didn't work, but this might be the way to go now?

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It's not competition to him, though. These guys like Bryan, who is the poster boy for what NXT does on a regular basis in the fans eyes, isn't seen as someone who can work on the level of their top guys to Vince and Dunn and what have you. As much as I wanted an NXT invasion angle or something along those lines, I doubt he sees NXT as competition.

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Sean, if people were paying $60 on the regular to see ROH shows, they wouldn't be going to Sinclair asking for budget increases. Maybe for PPVs they can charge that, and that's four times a year for 1k-2k houses.

 

If WWE knows they can get that, NXT would be on tour the day after WrestleMania. As it stands right now, they don't even know what they're booking for next week's show outside of Bill Simmons on commentary and something with Snoop Dogg, so I doubt they're that far ahead.

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It's not competition to him, though. These guys like Bryan, who is the poster boy for what NXT does on a regular basis in the fans eyes, isn't seen as someone who can work on the level of their top guys to Vince and Dunn and what have you. As much as I wanted an NXT invasion angle or something along those lines, I doubt he sees NXT as competition.

I guess, maybe Triple H could be thinking this way? Either way, there is some weird shit going on.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Vince thinks the WWE brand is what's driving the NXT sales.

 

To a certain extent, it is. I mean, NXT is one of the most watched shows on the Network. Even saying only 10% of Network subscribers watch NXT, which is probably an absurdly conservative number, that's still 100,000 viewers, which is likely twice to three times the number of people who were following ROH.

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