Is the empire crumbling before our eyes?

[Jmare007]

Yeah, it's a weird way of communicating it but it makes sense in the current landscape.

 

[KawadaSmile]

For some reason Malakai Black has been getting lots of shit, including death threats (!!!) because of dirtsheets talking about him jumping ship, talking about the length of his contract and whatnot. He just went on IG Live to address all that. Dude can't catch a break

[SirEdger]

Honestly, maybe if it had been said he was taking a "leave of absence" rather than a "conditional release", we might not even have this discussion. The "conditional release" implied for many that Black just wanted out of AEW to get to WWE while it doesn't seem to be the case.

Another example of something that AEW should've handled much better backstage than they did. Black shouldn't be receiving death threats because he put his mental health first

[sek69]

9 minutes ago, SirEdger said:

Another example of something that AEW should've handled much better backstage than they did. Black shouldn't be receiving death threats because he put his mental health first

Black could have said "fuck AEW and the whole Khan family" and it still wouldn't have warranted getting death threats. Neither the company or TK as a boss or a human being share any blame in the terminally online wrestling fan being gigantic pieces of shit. 

[El-P]

Sending death threats is the new black. And rape threats when it comes to women. People are insane and social media made it worse on that respect (of course, most of these people wouldn't say shit to people's face). It happens seemingly all the times now. 

About Malakai's case.

Malakai Black on Insta, September 18 : "I did indeed ask for my release" (not under quotation marks, although he did use the word under quotation marks later in the same post)

Also Malakai Black on Insta, September 27 : "I never said I asked for my release"

Also, it comes pretty much when TK just says "I ain't releasing shit so they can go to WWE". 

Honestly I would not mind if AEW would just refocus on guys who actually want to be there, and mostly guys coming from the indies or Japan/Mexico. For instance if Malakai, Matthews, Andrade or even Miro jump back to the WWE, that makes no difference at all at this point (funny how Rush has been that much better overall than Andrade in the few weeks he's been here in term of coming off like a star, although Andrade was not helped by the booking for a long time). Of these four I'd prioritize keeping Miro though, but really now, the era of "Hey, this guy would be much better out of the WWE system, let's sign him" is over. It has worked for some, not as much for others. Watching Claudio in AEW actually made it clear that he is *not* a main event player and really wasn't underused that much in WWE after all. He's an excellent in-ring worker, but I have found him kinda dry as a character thus far.

With Triple H at the helm, workers will have more opportunities to actually work like they do (see : Gunther or Pete Dunn). Placement on the card and booking is a different issue. Let's not kid ourselves, Karrion Kross seems to be the current new project, Bray Wyatt is gonna make a HUGE comeback, it's not like everybody coming back from AEW is gonna be Cody Rhodes.

Anywoo. I guess I always pick the worst time to want to just lurk. Crazy times all the time I guess now.

[NintendoLogic]

The behavior of Twitter eggs notwithstanding, the fact remains that multiple people, including Black, asked to be released and were denied. Combine that with the revelation that WWE has been reaching out to AEW talent and it isn't hard to put two and two together.

[El-P]

bUT thE DIrtSHEets Ar LyIn'

Also, pretending like "nothing happened" runs in the family I guess. Remember the infamous "I support unionization" tweet from Zelina just as she was getting released, then gently got re-hired and, oh well nevermind.

[Jmare007]

Some concerning stuff regarding future live attendance for AEW. I mean, they are still doing good but the drop in a lot of markets is very big, specially ones were they are coming back for just a second or third show in a year (there's no reason to think they've exhausted those places).

Not sure if I can post this so please tell me and I'll edit/delete it if necessary.

Quote

Dave notes that the upcoming AEW's ticket sales do not tell a good story at all. He reports 10/5 Dynamite in Washington, DC, is at 2,265 and 10/7 Rampage/Battle of the Belts in the same building is at 1,988. AEW noted DC as the anniversary show in the same city the first Dynamite aired (which did more than 14,000 fans and sold out instantly).

Dave comments that the hope that the great atmosphere and Arthur Ashe show would get live business back on track hasn’t shown up yet. He reports 10/12 in Toronto is basically sold out at 6,783, but the Rampage show on 10/13 is at 4,853. He assumes that the part of this may be that Rampage isn’t on television in Canada so its name value is nil, because the demand for Dynamite was off the chart and was an immediate sellout but the people turned away could have gotten Rampage tickets and most chose not to.

He also reports 10/18 for the Tuesday night show in Cincinnati with Jon Moxley vs. Adam Page is at 3,053 at the Heritage Bank Center which he saw this is not good. 10/21 Rampage in Jacksonville is at 2,250. 10/26 in Norfolk is at 2,217, way down from the last show. 10/28 in Uncasville, CT at the Mohegan Sun Casino is at 3,768. 11/2 in Baltimore is at 1,525, which shocks Dave for that market. 11/4 in Atlantic City, NJ, is at 776, which is brutal, especially since they did 5,500 paid and 5,900 in the building in February in the same arena. 11/9 in Boston is at 2,322, about half of what it was in the same building last time they were there and Boston as sold out every prior AEW show very quickly. This is also two-and-a-half weeks before Survivor Series which is pretty much sold out in the same city.

Dave continues to report that 11/16 in Bridgeport, CT is a 1,682, and they also did around triple that at the same point the last time in that building. 11/23 in Chicago at the Wintrust Arena is at 3,262, less than half of what last year’s night before Thanksgiving show did in the same arena which was an immediate sellout and Chicago has been the company’s best market. Dave notes that there are literally only three good numbers, the debut in Toronto which was a gimme, the debut in Seattle on 1/4 which is at 6,050 and many thought it would be a first day sellout but it’s still doing well and months away, and Full Gear.

Dave reports Full Gear on 11/19 in Newark, NJ, for the first PPV in the New York market, is at 9,779 and a sellout would be a little over 12,000. Most AEW PPV shows (80 percent up to this point) were first day sellouts and this was not, but this will probably come close to selling out and be the next $1 million house so it’s good, but he’d say not selling out first day is a minor surprise for the first time AEW does a PPV in that market. The secondary market get-in price for Full Gear starts at $58, and while it is selling well at that price, that is above average for the market but the demand is not like prior PPV shows for the most part. Even the first night in Toronto the get-in price is $70, so demand cooled off for that show since tickets went on sale, and Rampage get-in price in Toronto is $6, meaning there is no interest at all in that show from those who didn’t get tickets right away and the secondary market is almost giving them away.

Just more evidence that the honeymoon period is over.

 

I also think Tony's style of phasing people out for so long and no storyline reasons behind has run it's course. Even with a healthier roster, it doesn't feel like AEW makes use of it.

[Stiva]

At this point, I wouldn’t be against a brand split. Anchor one show around the tag division and one show around Moxley.

[sek69]

I hope that  other than a nice raise in money, the next TV deal gives them a second hour for Rampage and a time slot that doesn't get punted all over the calendar.

[El-P]

7 hours ago, Jmare007 said:

I also think Tony's style of phasing people out for so long and no storyline reasons behind has run it's course. Even with a healthier roster, it doesn't feel like AEW makes use of it.

Agreed. 

How the crowds have evolved is also very much telling of a negative evolution. The shows in Philly and Albany had really shitty WWE-like crowds, sitting on their ass during matches, popping only for bigger stars and entrance/catchphrases (god, don't make the Acclaimed the new NAO, please) and eventually big moves, and not reacting to outsiders. Meltz mentioned how one year ago, a regular AEW crowd would have popped for Juice and go crazy for Bandido. The atmosphere is not the same. There's something to the fact that AEW at first was basically hardcore fans sick of WWE, who followed the Elite in ROH and NJPW and wanted them to continue their own story out of the WWE system. There was an sense of general excitement that is not there anymore. Let's face it, AEW right now is "just" another pro-wrestling company, especially after all the dramas and politic bullshit that happened this year. Not to mention issues with the booking, which at times badly lacks focus, the difficulty of building the women division underlined by an all-time bad segment of the promotion this week, which after a while makes it just as frustrating as it would be with any other promotion.

I've been catching up a bit with IMPACT, which I had stopped watching during the Summer, and although things are very different in term of scale, roster and goals, I quickly forgot how fun and easy it is to watch and how *everything* is focused in term of weekly episodic TV (and really to pile it on, they had *three* women matches at Against All Odds, and all involved came off as bigger stars/characters that pretty much anyone in AEW save for Baker and Jade).

1 hour ago, Stiva said:

At this point, I wouldn’t be against a brand split. 

AEW needs to be different than WWE, not recycle their shitty ideas from 20 years ago.

1 hour ago, sek69 said:

I hope that  other than a nice raise in money, the next TV deal gives them a second hour for Rampage

Rampage is already a B-show that I watch out a straight habit at this point, I sure hope they don't get more TV time to fill. Thunder helped kill WCW sense of booking. Rampage has honestly been a completely skippable show for a while now, and adding another hour just to get more money won't help the product in the long run (yeah, I know, money will help the promotion, but please don't add another hour).

I dunno what the solution is. WWE getting hotter again and the hope that everybody puts in Paul (for both legit and imaginary reasons) is hurting AEW and that's out of their control. AEW was born out of frustration with WWE as a pro-wrestling product. WWE getting better as a pro-wrestling product makes it harder for AEW, who can't just position themselves as "We are defending true pro-wrestling" anymore and sure need to fly the fuck away from anything too WWE-like, because getting this kind of audience is not gonna work for them. AEW need to keep being different. Coach TK needs some help with the booking of his undercard/midcard, the detail work of week-to-week writing and better formating of the shows.

[Jmare007]

3 hours ago, El-P said:

There's something to the fact that AEW at first was basically hardcore fans sick of WWE, who followed the Elite in ROH and NJPW and wanted them to continue their own story out of the WWE system. There was an sense of general excitement that is not there anymore. Let's face it, AEW right now is "just" another pro-wrestling company, especially after all the dramas and politic bullshit that happened this year.

 

I truly wonder if that hardcore fanbase that spent so much money in The Elite and made ROH, All In and AEW so successful is there anymore.

As you've mentioned, a lot of the stuff that made them so into wrestling is either lacking or stopped existing: the "we are having fun/we are all friends" vibe is gone, WWE is not Satan anymore, New Japan stopped being the cool thing only the "real nerd fans" know about, even PWG's whole scene and unique atmosphere is gone.

Even if that fanbase is still there and is willing to spend their money on wrestling, do you try to bring them back to the building? They have very specific tastes that are polarizing even for the IWC. Yes, they do give the product something unique, but it kinda showed it had a ceiling. If you TK, are you content with that ceiling?

It's a complex decision. The next 6 to 12 months are gonna be very interesting. I truly hope things change quickly because the product is straight up bad for me, only reason I keep watching is because Danielson is still a full time performer, lol.

[Dale Wolfe]

Wow, those ticket numbers are brutal. I don't keep up with these things, has this been gradual or is it a sudden drop off? 

It isn't great tv, the vibe is not there at the moment 

[Migs]

1 hour ago, Jmare007 said:

I truly wonder if that hardcore fanbase that spent so much money in The Elite and made ROH, All In and AEW so successful is there anymore.

As you've mentioned, a lot of the stuff that made them so into wrestling is either lacking or stopped existing: the "we are having fun/we are all friends" vibe is gone, WWE is not Satan anymore, New Japan stopped being the cool thing only the "real nerd fans" know about, even PWG's whole scene and unique atmosphere is gone.

Even if that fanbase is still there and is willing to spend their money on wrestling, do you try to bring them back to the building? They have very specific tastes that are polarizing even for the IWC. Yes, they do give the product something unique, but it kinda showed it had a ceiling. If you TK, are you content with that ceiling?

It's a complex decision. The next 6 to 12 months are gonna be very interesting. I truly hope things change quickly because the product is straight up bad for me, only reason I keep watching is because Danielson is still a full time performer, lol.

You're missing the most obvious thing - the Elite are gone, except Page. Cody left in the winter and I do think that divided the loyalties of some on its own. Kenny missed most of the last year, then wrestled three matches and got suspended. The Bucks have been around until recently but spent the last year floating in and out of relevance - you could easily go weeks without seeing them in a key match. If you even look at the other indie guys who were a key part of the first year - SCU has disappeared, Best Friends are basically Orange's backup (some of that may be Trent's injuries, but still), guys like Darby/Fenix/Penta have mostly stalled out. The core of the promotion is just different, and while the same person may still be enjoying the shows, I think the loss of that core has eroded the loyalty level of the original fanbase. 

[Coffey]

5 hours ago, El-P said:

AEW needs to be different than WWE, not recycle their shitty ideas from 20 years ago.

Yeah, what the fuck? Why are people suggesting AEW does shit that we already lambast WWE for? MORE TV time? A fucking brand split? What the hell? It's bad enough they turned the stupid giant poker chip into a Money in the Bank briefcase. At this point, AEW is looking really bad, they don't need to make themselves look more like a generic WWE rip off. What's next, a 24/7 hardcore title?

Focus on your homegrown stars. Stop trying to force ROH onto Dynamite. Stop using people just because they came from WWE. Push people that have charisma. Don't do cold matches just because you have to "kill" TV time. Build up characters & angles & pay them off on PPV. This isn't hard.

[El-P]

Case in point : the most successful year of AEW in term of growth and hype was when Omega & the Bucks were finally booked on top and dominated the programs. The so-called "Elite drama", which BTW was long-term the bets booked and most compelling arc in pro-wrestling, spamming over several years and several companies, was finally taking its right spot in the company. Meanwhile Cody, who arguably was the biggest star from the Elite in 2019 and part of 2020, was doing Codyverse things that was very divisive to say the least and wasn't pushed as a top star anymore (he absolutely made the right move leaving when he did, he was the right guy at the right moment and turned himself into a biggest star in the process).

And it led to Danielson, Punk & Cole signing which at the time looked to be the beginning of the next level for AEW. Except apart from a few big gates attributed mostly to Punk, that's not what happened. The neverending flux of talent coming from WWE, most of which in the end not making much difference after the initial pop, the seemingly ghosting of departing people who had been there since day 1 (some of whom who really did not need to go like Stu Grayson or Marko Stunt, who had much more to add), the awkward infiltration of ROH leading to a multiplication of useless titles (so now Joe & Wardlow who both hold secondary singles titles are a tag team, wonderful; remember Mercedes Martinez the ROH women champion ?) and oversaturation of new people when they don't have time to get their main brand roster over, all that probably played a part in the audience changing and being a lot less hot than it was before. The streak of injuries derailing booking plans + bullshit dramas (MJF, Punk) + people wanting to leave back to "Papa Trip" all makes for a completely different landscape in a different context. There is need for changes in AEW to adapt to the new context.

16 minutes ago, Coffey said:

It's bad enough they turned the stupid giant poker chip into a Money in the Bank briefcase.

The Money in the Bank briefcase is one of the worst trope WWE introduced in pro-wrestling. It's so annoying to see people with briefcases in NJPW and it's goofy as hell to see a giant chip. I sure hope they don't go toward the stupid cashes-in bookings. 

16 minutes ago, Coffey said:

Focus on your homegrown stars. Stop trying to force ROH onto Dynamite. Stop using people just because they came from WWE. Push people that have charisma. Don't do cold matches just because you have to "kill" TV time. Build up characters & angles & pay them off on PPV. This isn't hard.

This. All this.

[KawadaSmile]

I get that AEW's change in attendance profile may have something do with the ticket buyrate decreasing, but at the same time shouldn't the company try to appeal to other audiences other than the hardcores?

I mean, it's possible they have thought that the diehard fans who were sick of the WWE modus operandi and booking philosophy, who instead were more keen on keeping up with the Elite, NJPW, CMLL etc, wouldn't make for a strong, sustainable crowd - at least not one to the level they wanted. They maybe thought that having, say, 5k hardcore fans (great number tbh) wouldn't be better than 8k fans who were more on the casual side. 

[KawadaSmile]

Also some have mentioned that them running the same places over and over might have led to diminishing returns. In 12 months, they booked Chicago 9 times. It's not really sustainable in the long run.

[Jmare007]

40 minutes ago, KawadaSmile said:

I get that AEW's change in attendance profile may have something do with the ticket buyrate decreasing, but at the same time shouldn't the company try to appeal to other audiences other than the hardcores?

I mean, it's possible they have thought that the diehard fans who were sick of the WWE modus operandi and booking philosophy, who instead were more keen on keeping up with the Elite, NJPW, CMLL etc, wouldn't make for a strong, sustainable crowd - at least not one to the level they wanted. They maybe thought that having, say, 5k hardcore fans (great number tbh) wouldn't be better than 8k fans who were more on the casual side. 

I get your point, but transitioning from appealing to those very hardcore fans that made your business not only possible but a very successful one for 3+ years is very complex.

Not only you have the difficulty of alienating the audience that brought you to the dance and made you a major player but getting the attention -and more importantly, the money- from a fan you don't even know how to reach, is a tall task.

I don't believe wrestling has a significant portion of casual fans that are there for the taking. I think the vast majority is either a hardcore/online/phased fans that have very different tastes and are not easy to please, let alone get them to spend money on you.

I guess the answer is "put on a compelling TV product and the people will come", but that way easier said than done. It's just frustrating to watch how TK seems to go away from compelling stuff as time goes on.

[El-P]

The one thing about the core audience, is that there was a very strong engagement from them in term of supporting the product, buying tickets, buying merchandise, being super hot crowds. Now it seems a good part of their audience has been replaced with a more casual audience that not only is less engaged in buying stuff but also makes for more apathetic crowds, hurting the perception and the experience of AEW shows, which was so great at the beginnings and for a while.

One thing is for sure, WWE is mainstream pro-wrestling. You can't change that. If you're not different, you're not WWE and you have to be less than WWE (this is what killed TNA). WCW got mainstream for a short while but they had Hogan/Piper/Savage/Flair, and AEW does not have this (and no, CM Punk wasn't this, the entire cult of CM Punk was part of that "anti-WWE" feeling that got so strong in the mid 10's and on). Chasing the dragon of being a mainstream promotion while having built your entire identity on being a hardcore at heart promotion was probably an insurmontable task.

I for one would be happy with a clear cut smaller N°2 which is satisfying to watch as a hardcore pro-wrestling fan. Which I why I never cared one bit for Cody's lame attempt at mainstream attention and I don't care about acts like Wardlow. Hell, I was super happy with the 3 first seasons of Lucha Underground. I'm more interested in what's next, what's new and different. Maybe also, the simple truth is that real exciting and important stuff never lasts too long. ECW best days was about three years. WCW's peak was about three years. NJPW's super hot period in the 10's lasted a bit more, maybe 5 or 6 ? It comes and goes (literally also, if you catch my drift). 

[Embrodak]

It's a lot of bad signals all at once - unhappiness in the locker room, diminished buyrate for their biggest PPV compared to last year, multiple high-profile injuries, aimlessness of the product with all the RoH and NJPW stuff coming in, attendance going down, etc. TV ratings have been good recently, but even increased TV licensing rates can't finance one or several arena rentals per week if the attendance isn't keeping up. It seems like the actual gates have remained stable because the prices have gone up - supposedly the Arthur Ashe show was more profitable than last year despite the crowd being way down - but you can only squeeze the hardest of the hardcore so much more firmly before even they start backing off. You can placate some of the growing rumblings of dissatisfaction among the hardcore audience by getting rid of Punk and maybe FTR (who now seem hated by a decent chunk of AEW fans), but that's a salve that will only last so long.

It's easy to say that Tony Khan should just make better use of his roster, but a lot of guys just have not shown the chops to handle the big time. Adam Page had the longest-running and most over storyline in the company, then had one of the more lackluster title reigns in a major company I can think of. Brian Pillman Jr. did absolutely nothing with a crapton of free publicity from that DSotR episode. Jungle Boy has been an absolute flop on the mic as a singles performer. Sammy Guevara doesn't know how to protect himself as a performer and has go-away heat with large portions of the audience. Daniel Garcia and Wheeler Yuta have gotten as strong of a push as any two performers at their level could ask for, and neither one has gotten especially over or shown the kind of natural charisma and likability that got Bryan Danielson over beyond what his look and physique would dictate. 

Maybe it really is the case that AEW's hardcore audience just really wanted to see the Bucks, Omega, Orange Cassidy, and the Lucha Brothers, and they're not interested if they're not a part of it or featured as prominently. If that's the case, it seems like AEW was a quixotic venture to begin with, because there's a shelf life on them even if most of them didn't work a style that puts a lot of stress on their bodies.

[chapstarfall]

I have seen AEW live twice, liked it both times. First time in 2019 in Philadelphia, then in Savannah GA this year. I was back in philly, and thought about seeing this past week's show, but based on the announced matches I was just unenthused about paying what would be an expensive ticket, travel and being in a lousy neighborhood. I ended up watching it at home, and while it would have been nice to see the actual toni storm/serena deeb match and heard the reaction to MJF in person, I didn't feel too bad about not attending live. 

[Jesse Ewiak]

The basic issue with "AEW being a strong #2 promotion that only appeals to hardcores" is well, what we're looking at right now - the hardcores can only buy a ticket to a show so many times until even they get burned out when you visit multiple times in a short time period, that hardcore audience isn't really growing which makes you look less valuable to TV networks in the long run, etc. TV Networks at a certain point, just like any other business, want to see growth, and eventually, they may be fine paying something for AEW, but not as much as people that claim to know about wrestling economics have been stating for the past year. 

I'd also push back against the idea that there are no casual fans - I'll die on the hill that the actual number of people that pay attention to wrestling in the US (since that's what we're talking about when we're talking about ratings and such - 50 million people watched WM in India after all) is about the same as the 2010-2011 era. It's just people aren't watching on cable for 2 or 3 hours a week, but instead, paying attention via the Internet, Youtube, etc. There's a reason why WWE has one of the most viewed YT channels. Plus, again, since moving to Peacock, WWE consistently is doing much better numbers Y2Y for their big events. The reality is more people are watching the big 4 PPV's than probably ever before, and even in the US, I wouldn't be shocked if WrestleMania for example, actually has more viewers after it's first week than the highest rated Smackdown of the year because of the brand name. 

As far as specific booking goes, I think it's just also true that Tony like any other booker has favorites, and it's just those favorites aren't clicking in the same way as other possible younger guys that could've been pushed, that maybe aren't Tony's Guys. Like, this isn't the best analogy, but Yuta & Garcia are pretty much the indy version of all the over 6-feet blandly good looking guys we saw in the WWE for years before the indy infusion - they're the 'type' the booker wants, but they don't the inherent intangibles the other guys with that look actually have, that the booker thinks they can just cut 'n' paste. Randy Orton and Bryan Danielson are both stars for a reason, and you just can't copy it. 

I do think there's an argument that the initial AEW audience was basically there for high budget PWG (to really simplify things) and that's part of the reason for some unhappiness about the changes in rosters and pushes recently, but that was never going to be a product to last for a while, plus a lot of that roster is frankly, getting old and paying the price for all those PWG-style matches. 

That's not even getting into the fact that just maybe, we're finding out that "creative freedom" is a nice buzzword, but sometimes, you need to overrule your wrestlers, either because the story they're telling is moving at a snail's pace or because they're a dork who doesn't realize their a top guy who needs to be pushed like a top guy (hey, Danielson!) instead of being in pointless matches against lower-card guys, etc. 

[DMJ]

I posted a similar thought on Reddit, but, to me, part of the issue - and its not entirely TK's fault - is that for a roster loaded with talent, there's often question marks about what you might actually get when you buy a ticket for a show a month or 3 weeks later.

When's the last time an episode of Dynamite featured even 50% of the stars in the company - Omega, Punk, The Bucks, Danielson, Mox, Kingston, Hangman, Jeff Hardy, Jericho, Britt Baker, Adam Page, Miro, FTR, Malachai Black, the Lucha Bros, Darby, Starks, Christian, Samoa Joe...

I'm sorry, but when you give me Jay Lethal and Tony Nese and Luchasaurus every week, well...I'm just not interested in paying $50+ to see a show where I'm not getting the big stars. 

Again, I know that you can't book all these talents onto a single show and that injuries/suspensions (and now weather and pandemics) make it even harder, but TK has talent that is over and healthy and still seem under-exposed. Like, dude, you're paying these people. Put them on the show! 

 

[sek69]

History has shown that CMLL and Memphis were the only companies to run the same markets consistently without burning them out.