Observer HOF prediction/ballot question thread

[dkookypunk43]

To me it's never too early to talk about but when does this year's ballot come out and how will the voting turn out? Who is new, who's left off?

[Loss]

It's fairly soon. This year has some interesting names. I don't think these are the only ones being added but these four are the ones I'm interested in hearing people make cases for and against.

 

Daniel Bryan

Shinsuke Nakamura

Randy Orton

AJ Styles

[dkookypunk43]

It will be interesting to see those names and how the voting for older guys gets skewed because of a guy like Bryan or Nakamura who are likely going to go in. Idk about first class but they have strong cases. Meltzer also mentioned CIMA but has he had an influence the other four certainly have.

[jushin muta liger]

CIMA has the influence for this modern Dragon Gate style but it seems criminal that Gran Hamada is not in if CIMA gets in.

 

Daniel Bryan is automatic lock off of ring work alone and will probably be the first guy from the modern indies to get into the WON HOF. You can't judge off of being a draw because the business was monopolized in America.

 

AJ will get some votes cause of his two years but will probably get a disappointing vote total.

 

Nakamura is an interesting case because he got pushed as a supernova right out of the gate and had to re-invent himself to stay relevant later in his career and it worked.

 

Orton doesn't stand a chance of getting in.

[Tenese Sarwieh]

With the names mentioned on this thread this early the only lock I see getting in is Bryan and iffy on Nakamura. Looking forward to reading the forums and listening to podcasts expressing their opinions on who's worthy of getting in the HOF.

[LariatMMBOPPO]

Daniel Bryan is automatic lock off of ring work alone and will probably be the first guy from the modern indies to get into the WON HOF. You can't judge off of being a draw because the business was monopolized in America.

 

But you can't (allegedly) get into the WON HoF on work alone. And it's still entirely possible to judge draws.

[GSR]

 

 

Daniel Bryan is automatic lock off of ring work alone and will probably be the first guy from the modern indies to get into the WON HOF. You can't judge off of being a draw because the business was monopolized in America.

 

But you can't (allegedly) get into the WON HoF on work alone.And it's still entirely possible to judge draws.

What else did Benoit get in on then?

[Grimmas]

 

 

Daniel Bryan is automatic lock off of ring work alone and will probably be the first guy from the modern indies to get into the WON HOF. You can't judge off of being a draw because the business was monopolized in America.

 

But you can't (allegedly) get into the WON HoF on work alone.And it's still entirely possible to judge draws.

What else did Benoit get in on then?

 

Also Bryan was a bigger draw than Benoit.

[PeteF3]

Hase's case was almost all work, too, and in fact he probably has less going for him draw-wise than Benoit and certainly less than Bryan.

[Grimmas]

Let's be fair, there is a lot of people in the HOF should either not be in or went in way too early. Using the standard of who got in the past is an interesting topic.

 

Ultimo Dragon is in, while Ken Patera got voted off the ballot. Looking at those two things, then I have no idea who anybody should vote for in the future.

[Matt D]

Let's be fair, there is a lot of people in the HOF should either not be in or went in way too early. Using the standard of who got in the past is an interesting topic.

 

Ultimo Dragon is in, while Ken Patera got voted off the ballot. Looking at those two things, then I have no idea who anybody should vote for in the future.

 

Probably the Young Bucks

[Grimmas]

 

Let's be fair, there is a lot of people in the HOF should either not be in or went in way too early. Using the standard of who got in the past is an interesting topic.

 

Ultimo Dragon is in, while Ken Patera got voted off the ballot. Looking at those two things, then I have no idea who anybody should vote for in the future.

 

Probably the Young Bucks

 

If the Young Bucks get in and it took the Rock 'n' Roll Express almost 20 years to get in, then I don't know what I will do, but I will be grumpy!

[WingedEagle]

Bryan: He seems like an absolute lock based on work alone and his record in the WON awards. If 17 Most Outstandings don't matter here then its tough to see how you can make a case for anyone based on a single factor. I know it can be done, and certainly believe that that a beyond significant drawing record should be enough based upon the impact that a huge draw can have on the very viability of a company and by extension the entire industry. Which in a very roundabout way gets us to Bryan's record as a draw. Based solely on a rough recollection he did better than average on top in ROH as champion/headliner. In his case perhaps that helps some voters who value that aspect of a candidacy. Personally I've yet to hear the case for anyone deserving consideration, much less induction, into the HOF based upon drawing on the indys. Until someone is responsible for an indy growing beyond that base I'm just not interested. It may not be fair, but earn a promotion to the major leagues and leave your mark there.

 

However, I think Bryan offers enough on that stage for those grasping for something beyond ring work. He headlined Wrestlemania 30 and his role there very likely saved the show from the perspective of how it came off to a worldwide audience, and may have been responsible for it drawing the buyrate it did (arguable that it did over 600k buys because of network concerns, but I think its tough to conclusively say this was or wasn't attributable to Bryan). But we're talking about the draw and focus of a Mania, which I look at like a Finals or Super Bowl MVP. When you factor in repeat winners there have been far less than 31. Being on that list shouldn't put you in the HOF, but it should be enough to earn you consideration.

 

Then again, if you don't think Bryan was one of the 5-10 best workers of the last 10-15 years than this moot and nothing else he did should put him over the hump.

 

Orton: More than Batista, perhaps a base case for what the WON HOF ceiling is for a non-Cena WWE #2. The best thing I can say about him is that in almost any other era, a sustained run as arguably one of the few biggest performers in the top company in the country should be a strong enough case for inclusion. It doesn't here, even if that doesn't feel fair.

 

Nakamura: Will unquestionably see a huge bump based on NJPW coverage the last few years. Wrestle Kingdom isn't Mania, and he hasn't been top 5 in the world for a decade at this point. Not at all shutting the door on him, but feels like a couple more years are needed to cement it.

 

Styles: I simply haven't watched enough TNA to fairly judge him, which is something I hope to do over the next year. Easily my Most Outstanding for 2015 and deserving of major kudos for getting over as a foreigner in Japan the last 2 years. But again, no real points in my book for drawing in ROH or anywhere on the indys, so will need to feel out just where the work ranks as that seems the meat of his candidacy at this point.

[Matt D]

Is Orton more of a draw than Batista?

[Dylan Waco]

Bryan will get in this year, or next at absolute worst. I won't vote for him, but I have no problem with his inclusion. Nakamura is emerging as an interesting candidate just now - no way he should go in at this point, and it's possible he will never be deserving. CIMA is someone I am happy to see on the ballot, but there is no way he should be in if Hamada isn't. Styles coming back on so early after being rejected is ridiculous. Orton is probably the most interesting one of all of those names, because your position on him is likely a good indicator of how you view the HOF as a whole.

[Matt D]

Orton is a guy who is beloved by retired workers, no?

[funkdoc]

re: undeserving HOFers etc.

 

if you'll notice, the vast majority of the weakest HOF selections have come from the japan category. e.g. ultimo, dr. death, hase, sasaki, masa saito

 

it seems clear to me that those voters are either more lenient or just have a totally different view of the HOF than we do. so i would never count out nakamura...

 

anyway bryan seems really likely to get in this year, esp with the sympathy from all his injury issues. and i think doing what his crew did for the indies is a significant enough achievement for the hall, given what an important talent source they've become

[JerryvonKramer]

I can't imagine a world in which any of those guys are inducted before Arn Anderson and, since that seems to be the case, I will be boycotting HoF discussion this year.

[dkookypunk43]

Was Arn Anderson a bigger draw than Bryan, Nakamura, Orton, or Styles? I can say no for all of them. I know Arn is a great worker but he'd get in on onlybhis workrate merits and a bit on influence. Was Arn the best wrestler in the world at any point? No so I can see a case for all these guys before Arn Anderson JVK

[JerryvonKramer]

I don't really care, that's my position and it is final. Enjoy the discussion.

[jushin muta liger]

re: undeserving HOFers etc.

 

if you'll notice, the vast majority of the weakest HOF selections have come from the japan category. e.g. ultimo, dr. death, hase, sasaki, masa saito

 

it seems clear to me that those voters are either more lenient or just have a totally different view of the HOF than we do. so i would never count out nakamura...

 

anyway bryan seems really likely to get in this year, esp with the sympathy from all his injury issues. and i think doing what his crew did for the indies is a significant enough achievement for the hall, given what an important talent source they've become

It's been said before about the Japanese bias in terms of in ring work and reputation but Japan has always been second in the world in terms of wrestlers getting work, getting paid well and making a name for themselves. So you're gonna have guys from that region who don't deserve to be in but because of exposure, they will get the benefit of the doubt.

[MJH]

The argument against Bryan is "does he get all those Most Outstanding Awards" if he's 10/+ years older? Personally (and I'm way more down on Bryan than most, admittedly) I think the answer's an obvious "no", but the reality is he's almost obligated the vote because one has to reflect the other. If someone's won 20 Grammys they're gonna go into the Grammy HOF or whatever their equivalent might be.

[Loss]

I wish we had ROH DVD sales figures. So many of those were sold on the quality of a Danielson match that I suspect it would reflect well on him. Winged Eagle mentioned no one getting in as an indy draw before, and I get that, but the only source of indy revenue for candidates before the time period we are starting to consider was the live gate. Danielson alone didn't change the game, but his ring work was important in making the game change successful. I think what makes Daniel Bryan so impressive is:

 

- He not only became one of the greatest workers ever, but did it during a time period that it was much harder than ever because of a changing landscape

- Along with Punk, Joe, Super Dragon, Low Ki and Homicide, he created an indy boom of sorts, and of the bunch, he was the best worker

- He became the most beloved figure in wrestling and received a decent amount of mainstream exposure with counterproductive promotion and booking working against him at a level very few guys in the HOF ever had to endure. Maybe Flair in WCW (by which time his case was long made) and Rey in WWE (who admittedly overcame it in a stronger way than Bryan did). He didn't really establish himself strongly on WWE's big four fronts (PPV, house shows, TV ratings and merchandise). However, while that's the biggest knock against him, I think it's also the least significant aspect of his candidacy. Someone like Batista becoming a draw in WWE isn't "easy" and I don't want to discredit him, but it's less impressive to me than what Danielson pulled off because he didn't have as many roadblocks in his way. And the context there matters. I do think Rey and Hardy rank above him because they proved to be successful in those categories, but others being better at something than the wrestler in question doesn't mean the wrestler in question can't go in the HOF

 

The easiest way to sum him up I think is that he's the most overachieving "good hand" of the past 15-20 years. His case isn't there within the traditional framework, but compared to other HOFers, the landscape in which he wrestled wasn't a traditional one either.

 

Of the other guys who are in on work alone, whose ring work alone mattered as much to their company? I can't think of anyone outside of him and his peers -- usually when working against him -- that could use great matches as a selling point to either move DVDs or draw a gate.

[KrisZ]

I think Randy Orton will clean up with the wrestlers demo but may tank everywhere else

[MFoy]

Hardy and Rey also had more years of steady pushes to achieve their drawing power. I think Bryan did well considering how brief and begrudging his babyface push was.

 

I don't think Orton is getting in but i wouldn't discount the possibility. Like others have said, his respect among older wrestlers is very high, and he does well among journalists and historians, if Meltzer's recent praise is any indication.