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Comments that don't warrant a thread - Part 3


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From Gary Hart's autobiography:

 

 

Apparently, Kevin Von Erich , Scott Hall, and Rick Hazzard had gone out for a night on the town, got drunk on some sake, and pissed on the wall of a restaurant. The Yakazu - which is the Japanese mob – happened to be there and were highly insulted, so they followed them back to their hotel, and when Scott and Kevin went off to their rooms, the Yakazu grabbed Rick Hazzard and stabbed him seventeen times. They didn’t go into any arteries, but they cut him over both his eyes and across his nose. New Japan sent him home immediately, and everyone at World Class tried to squash the story. The worst thing is, when Rick got back, Fritz blamed the whole incident on him! He said it was Rick’s fault for not keeping Kevin in line!

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Apparently the two had some sort of legit heat, and Yoshiko thought the best course of action would be to go after her eye she's partly blind in and shatter her orbital bone.

 

 

This is now up and it's about as weird as it is disturbing. Looks like they tried to turn a major back stage issue into an angle but it blew up in their faces in the worst possible way. I want to feel bad for the younger girls because some of them have really improved in the last year but most of them were in Yoshiko's corner and did nothing to stop it. Even Act had multiple opportunities to stop the match but ended up having to be forced to the back.

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From what I can gather from two different sources European wrestler Dragan Okic got life threatening injuries (severe head trauma, cerebral edema and lung injuries) on a show in Austria last Saturday. He got the injuries taking a spinning powerbomb from Joe Doering. Okic finished the match and lost consciousness backstage. He was put into artifical coma.

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Was there ever a reason given for why they moved the Raw announcers by the entrance in 2002, other than Bischoff is the GM and that's how it worked on Nitro? Just seems like a very odd thing for them to from a production standpoint, plus all of the announcers hated it.

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Was there ever a reason given for why they moved the Raw announcers by the entrance in 2002, other than Bischoff is the GM and that's how it worked on Nitro? Just seems like a very odd thing for them to from a production standpoint, plus all of the announcers hated it.

No, it was pretty much just because that's how Bischoff did it on Nitro. Plus it was early on in the brand split days and I think they still cared about trying to make the shows different.

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I am looking to introduce a buddy of mine to Thatcher and Busick. I've narrowed it down to either Evolve 35 or Evolve 36.

 

35 seems to have a lesser Thatcher match but does have the added bonus of Gulak and Sabre, while 36 has both guys against fantastic talent in Lee and Ricochet.

 

So, opinions?

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I was really occupied the last few weeks so only today did I read the WON obit(s) for Larry Winter. Turns out Meltzer mentions his rookie gimmick of "Andre Zavida" which probably is "Andre Zvezda" as he was - apparently - more known. So add at least a WWF tv match, a short stint in Kansas and a Stampede stint for Winters. It's the only "Andre Z*" we have for 105061 individual persons at Wrestlingdata, so it seems to work out. I'm always trying to flesh out such rookie/jobber gimmicks, so I'm happy that one pothole has been fixed.

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So, on the WWE's History of the World Heavyweight Title show, is the footage of Gene Kiniski vs. Lou Thesz actually the match where Gene wins the title?

 

I'm guessing it's a title defense from after the fact but it's a pretty cool collections of clips. Gene gets the belt form the ref at the end and Lou's pissed.

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Did this make tape, NWA World Heavyweight Champion Ric Flair vs Tiger Mask II, Tokyo, 3/8/87? If so what are people's thoughts on it?

 

It's around. I saw the TV version years ago. It was fine but nothing special at all, fun curiosity though.

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2 random 80's WWF questions; What was the context of Brutus Beefcake coming out to help Roddy Piper beat Adrian Adonis at WrestleMania III? Also, is it true Lou Albano played all the instruments on his song on The Wrestling Album?

 

There was a TV angle where Adonise was going to cut someone's hair, but accidentally got Beefcake instead, so he was pissed. Piper beat Adonis, and Beefcake came out to cut the hair for revenge. Hence: Brutus "The Barber" Beefcake!

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I'm not sure where to put this (there's an old WWE financials thread that I did not want to resurrect) so here it goes. Is there anybody that deals in WWE shares? I'm curious.

 

They have been underperforming for years but they I imagine the Wrestlemania enthusiasm will give them a bump (WM season isn't a historical direct indicative of a share price bump though) and they may get a second bump once Network numbers are announced (inflated by the WM enthusiasm and all the free month gimmicks). I'd buy some but GBP/USD isn't that great at the moment.

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I don't deal in WWE shares, but follow its value pretty closely. It's currently trading at $16.75. I think there will likely be a bump up in price when they announce the WM numbers, perhaps up to $20 a share, but I'm not 100% confident of that. It depends upon what investors think is a good number for WM, as they're starting to catch onto the idea that there will be greater churn in subscribers after the event. The best time to buy would have been just before the Rumble when the stock was approaching pre-Network hype levels.

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I don't know what to say. I've spent a lot of time trying to convert WWE core metrics into WWE business performance into WWE stock price. It's that last translation that is super-hard to understand. First of all, the stock market on WWE seems to over-react. They get sky-high expectations and the are surprised when things don't materialize as expected. The stock went through the roof last year on the backs of the "we're live entertainment! cheap sports! like nascar!" but started to fall when they announced 667k post-WM subscribers and it crashed when the new NBCU deal came in at 1.5x old rates instead of 2x-3x. The stock was in the doldrums for awhile and got as low as $9.99 back in early January. Then they announced 1M subscribers and the stock rocketed up. The Q4 numbers came and losses were lower than expectations and the stock climbed up more and more. It's weird. They did have record revenue but they also had near-record losses. Most of the fundamental segments of the WWE are profitable - the losses came from the WWE Network and from their growing Corporate & Other segment which includes things like the airplane and NXT territory. They finally did some cost-cutting last year, so they are actually running a bit leaner in 2015 compared to where they've been in the past, though they still have the atrocious WWE Studios on the books and always claim it's on the verge of turning around.


Right now - stockholders seem to be buying into the whole "we could double or triple our OIBDA" by achieving a steady average of 1.5M to 2.0M monthly paid subscribers to the WWE Network. They figure if they started the year at 1M, why can't they end the year at above 1.5M? Those of us that have seen the annual trend for WWE when it comes to PPV buys know that Jan-March is always strong and then things fall off. What's unknown is whether the same is going to happen in the new WWE Network model.


Last year the company managed to grow their WWE Network numbers each quarter, but it was a painful process. They had to rush the global expansion. They had to compromise on OTT model in some places. They had to give away free months. They had to drop the six-month commitment. But in the end, the number of total paid subscribers grew from 3/31 to 12/31.


This year, they're pretty much guaranteed to register a huge Q1 number for WWE Network subscribers. They ended January near 1M (though we don't know what percentage were actually paid), they did a free Feb. promotion and March has WrestleMania. Estimates vary wildly on how many people we're going to buy WM, but I guessed between 1.14M and 1.39M. The big question is how many people will stick around. WWE has been experiencing six-digit churn every single quarter.


They're out of new giant markets to expand into. (UK was a big deal, and quickly became the #2 market.) What's left is China (not going to happen), Japan (while NJPW World growth demonstrates how much demand there may be the WWE Network growth would be only a bit of that), India (WWE got a massive increase in domestic TV rights from India making it the third most lucrative contract; I am doubtful they'll launch the WWE Network there if it's going annoy their TV partner Ten Sports), Germany (could add some subscribers), Italy (could add some subscribers), Pakistan (don't see it as a priority) and the wildcards of Thailand & Malaysia (again, the new TV contract may deter WWE from launching the Network).


Basically, at this point, WWE needs to figure out a way to keep subscribers for the rest of the year. Once they publish a quarter where WWE Network subscriptions have declined, I expect the stock will take a hit. If you don't think it's ever going to decline, I'm sure it's a good buy now. If you think it's going to decline at some point in the future (Q2? Q3?), play your cards accordingly.


Fundamentally, I am concerned that WWE's core metrics around attendance and ratings have been, at best, stagnant. If they were heading for a new boom period, I'd see WWE Network growth being a real opportunity. I think that the popularity of the current product is what galvanizes the new subscribers. There's a core base that's always going to subscribe. The $9.99 price is inoffensive to some people, like me, who keep it year round because it's not a big drag on the bank account. But WWE PPV numbers prove that there is a huge variable group which can be brought into caring about WWE product for big events or if a huge star like the Rock is involved.


I've broke down some of the analyst predictions for WWE such as the one from Hilliard Lyons in February setting a price target of $18. They projected that "WWE Media" would grow from $340M (2014) to $461M (2015). That's a 36% growth coming from PPV/Network + TV + Home Entertainment + Digital Media. TV Rights are definitely going up and WWE Network should be higher, but that still feels very aggressive to me.


So, you can look at these core metrics, and decide "WWE isn't going to be churning out profit tomorrow". However, what matters in the stock market game is whether more people are buying or selling the stock. There was a company (Mangrove Partners) that was shorting WWE and they took a beating recently when the price when flying up after the Q4 results. I thought a lot of people might take their wins and walk away, but instead the stock continues to grow. It's almost the tale of two forecasts - short-term people just want to hear a good number for WrestleMania. Long-term they want to believe that WWE is going to start generating record profit. (It's helps that they like to talk about their OIBDA now and ignore their depreciation which has grown substantially in the last few years.)


Barrios insists that WWE has crossed the financial inflection point and they're going to start being profitable. 2014 was supposed to be the difficult transition year. The good news is that the TV Rights revenue is pretty much guaranteed. There's automatic rate escalators and they said it's not even tied to ratings. So, WWE is in a good place short of losing distribution for some unknown or unseen reason. If they ever figure out how to actually monetize social media, that'll help. (They like to conflate things so when people ask them about social media, they talk about YouTube digital rights fees.)


They need a lot of subscribers to start generating the profits of yore, let alone the new world of profits. If I thought the stock was driven by that actual comparison, the future would be a clearer. Instead, WWE stock often seems to do the opposite of whatever I predict. As one investor told me on Twitter, "No offense but Chris has been dead wrong about everything having to do with $WWE and he should admit it".


WWE was running short on cash so they took a pre-payment on one of their TV deals (I believe the annual report revealed it was NBCU) so they wouldn't have trouble covering the dividend. To me, that's a warning sign, but the stock market feels differently. I'm just not sophisticated enough to understand how to translate the facts about WWE business into the WWE share price.


Here's the articles I wrote in the recent weeks on this subject:


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